Stock market review for September 15, 2021
Tax hikes in the steel industry may continue. Investors were alarmed by the news of a possible increase in the severance tax (almost threefold) for companies in the metallurgical sector. According to the media, the amendments to the tax code may be adopted before the end of the year. If this happens, the burden on the industry may increase by 100 billion rubles, which is comparable to the profits of a major player in the sector.
It should not be excluded that the heaviest tax burden will fall on ferrous metallurgy companies, as well as on (GMKN 23,988, -2.06%). We should also take into account the fact that financial income (RUAL 71,1, -4,05%) largely depends on MMK, so the negative reaction of investors affected the quotations of the aluminum giant as well.
We believe that the main aspects and parameters of the tax reform may be made public as early as October. In this case, it will be possible to make acceptable calculations on the impact of the MET increase on companies' profits. In our opinion, we should not expect a significant reduction in profits as compared with current forecasts. In short-term perspective the market will continue to play the news negatively: sector's shares quotations may lose another 2-4% by the end of the week.
Rostelecom (RTKM 93.27, +0.72%), spec. buy, target 99 rubles. At the moment, the shares have corrected to the area of the annual minimum, but the technical picture and significant fundamental potential indicate that the securities may show a strong positive dynamics. If the target of 99 rubles is reached, the mid-term target is 128 rubles.
We expect mixed dynamics. On the local market, the focus is on the OFZ auction. In the U.S. statistics on oil reserves will be released, which is especially urgent against the background of the hurricane off the coast of Texas. Moscow Exchange index is estimated to be in 4020 - 4060 points range. USD/RUB: 72.50-73.50.