The medium-term technical growth pattern of Rosneft shares is broken
On Friday, quotes were breaking down the monthly level of 571.5. In the evening a rebound was formed, but it failed to go above local resistance 575.4. In the morning session trading opened with a gap down, again breaking through the 571.5 level.
Technical picture forms a new break down. During the day a deeper decline to the area of 557.5-562 is possible. In this area, it is necessary to monitor the reaction of the buyers, as the sellers may try to accelerate and continue the decline.
If the buyers' reaction follows, we should wait for a bounce and test the 571.5-575.4 area to test the sellers' strength. If the stock can pass above 575.4, the road to 585.3-589.4 will open. This scenario is in favor of resumption of growth, but until the price fixes above the 571.5-582.5 area, the medium-term movement scenario is on the sellers' side.
What are the downside targets now? Now the movement on the weekly chart, breaking through the monthly level of 571.5, we consider the first impulse. The first downside targets are in the area of 478-506.6, the main 448-460.
The first acceleration target of 506.6 has been reached, this mark coincides with the lower boundary of the trend channel on the weekly chart. There is a chance that the price will not reach the area of 448-460, and can only reach 480. We need to wait for the breakdown in the coming weeks, it is too early to make conclusions now.
On the daily chart, the RSI curve is in the neutral zone at 44 p. The RSI indicator shows a bullish divergence. On the 4-hour chart the stock trades under the 50-day moving average. Technical indicators are showing a neutral trend. First of all, keep an eye on the mentioned resistance and support areas.
The medium-term technical picture for growth is broken due to the breakdown of 535-545 support zone and acceleration of the fall in this area. Targets in the 700-704 area, the main in the 720-740 area, the maximum 770-780 and 791-804 are not relevant now.
The external background in the morning is negative. Futures are down 1.1%. Asian indices are trading in the red zone. down 2.4%. Rosneft shares are down 1.3% in the morning session.
Rosneft is the first oil company whose shares returned to the levels seen before the February-March sell-off. Since the November 2020 lows, Rosneft quotes have been climbing at 93%. Recently, after a long sideways consolidation, the quotes continued to rise.
Last week the price broke through the 535-545 support zone, this area was important for the upside scenario. This makes the upside scenario to the longer-term major marks of 704-721 and the more risky 731-741 irrelevant.
Now the movement on the weekly chart, breaking through the monthly level of 571.5, we consider as the first impulse. The first downside targets are in the area of 478-506.6, the main 448-460.
In the long term picture, you have to look at the weekly candle close at the end of Friday's trading.