There are strong fears that the sell-off in the Russian stock market will intensify today

The last 4 sessions of last week saw the Russian stock market fall, which resulted in the Mosbirch Index ending the week just below the lower boundary of the uptrend channel that started at the end of last year. We've seen attempts to break that support before, but all ended up bouncing back and updating historical highs.

However, at that time there was an inflow of funds from Western investors, and now non-residents are reducing their positions on Russian shares. This is connected with the end of the period of oil growth, as well as with the approach of the Duma elections.

Therefore, there are strong concerns that the fixing of the Mosbirch Index under the lower boundary of the channel will provoke an intensification of sales and a decrease of the ruble indicator by 10-15%.

The external background today is unfavorable: U.S. futures are down 0.4% and oil is losing interest. Therefore, the opening is expected to be lower.

OPEC+ countries over the weekend reached an agreement on production levels. Starting from August, the monthly production increase will be 400 kbpd until the previous reduction of 5.8 mln bpd is compensated. For the oil market this decision is moderately positive, because if the global economy continues to grow, the additional 400 thousand barrels per day will be easily digested by the market, but at the same time the risks of collapse of the cartel are a thing of the past.

However, oil is falling today on a general decline in investment optimism. Quotes went under the support of $73 per barrel, and may well test the next level of $70.

Thus, medium-term investors need to be prepared to reduce positions on stocks in order to buy them back cheaper later on.

We have a good chance to speculatively try to earn on shorts on "", and . In case the rebound starts, NLMK and MMK look the most promising, which this week will publish the Q2 report, which promises to be very strong. Most likely, these securities will be better on the falling market as well.

We should keep a close eye on the Americas. A strong support is located around 4,280 points in the S&P500. Its breakdown will intensify the decline, to which the Russian stock market will react by multiple sales.

The ruble has been trading in a narrow sideways pattern of 74-74.6 in recent days. Now the Russian currency will receive support from the tax period and expectations of the Central Bank rate increase. The worse the situation is, the more likely it is that the regulator will raise the rate by 1 p. p. at once. However, under any scenario, the rate increase will have a weak and short-term positive impact on the ruble exchange rate and inflation.

Today, the pair is likely to test the resistance of 74.6. If the pair gets above it, it will open the way to 76.