The stock market today: which shares to buy in the investment portfolio and which are no longer worth it
Кейсы с комбинацией дивидендной доходности менее 3% и высокой долей угольной генерации, вероятно, будут отставать от динамики сектора. “Чистые” коммунальные компании получат преимущество перед таковыми за счет нового раунда господдержки (Inflation Reduction Act), а их привлекательность с точки зрения дивидендов сомнительна с учетом текущей ставки по 10-летним трежерис, которая уверенно превышает 3%. Интересных идей в РФ на краткосрочном горизонте на текущий момент мы не видим.
The risks remain significant, but nevertheless, at current levels, we consider them attractive for long-term investments. Among Russian financial companies, we also see promising .
B remains vulnerable to rising interest rates, but there are companies that are still capable of growing profits in the face of inflation and supply problems, as well as generating substantial cash flow sufficient to pay dividends and . In our view, bigtech, software and cloud business solution providers will look better than the market in the coming months, while semiconductor manufacturers and hardware vendors will look weaker. Specifically, in the U.S., we consider Alphabet (CTC $141, upside 27.4%), Microsoft (CTC $337, upside 27.4%), Palo Alto (CTC $674, upside 19.3%), (CTC $205, upside 30.3%), Oracle (CTC $108, upside 42.3%) the most promising for the next few months.
At the same time, semiconductor manufacturers may show weak results due to the alignment of supply and demand for electronic components and chips, as well as hardware and telecommunications equipment suppliers due to logistics problems. We note the reduction in global shipments of PCs, tablets and smartphones, so their manufacturers are also at risk of lower revenues. Not in a better situation are companies with a high debt load, having a large amount of external financing.
Among domestic representatives of the IT-sector, VK Company and , which since February have declined more than the market, have not bad prospects. Against their backdrop, MTS and Rostelecom are less positioned for growth amid problems with equipment supplies.
после просадки образовались весьма интересные инвестиционные возможности. Американский фармагигант Pfizer, главный бенефициар пандемии коронавируса, с начала года находится в минусе на 15% и выглядит значительно недооцененным. Эффект пандемии в выручке Pfizer в этом году способен достичь $54 млрд – больше половины от общих продаж. Наша целевая цена по бумаге на ближайший год – $64,6, апсайд 34%. Крайне дешевыми выглядят и акции американского поставщика медицинского оборудования Baxter International, просевшие на 31% с начала года. Динамика финансовых показателей Baxter никак не объясняет столь крупной просадки, и бумага весьма привлекательна на текущих уровнях, апсайд на ближайший год может достигать 45% (целевая цена $86,5).
shares of Chinese companies traded in Hong Kong - the world's largest producer of primary aluminum China Hongqiao Group and China's leading producer of gold, copper and other metals Zijin Mining Group - look noticeably undervalued relative to competitors. Both companies have a wide geography of production, but their sales are focused primarily on the PRC market. Thus, they are less dependent on exports and will benefit more from a recovery in Chinese demand. China Hongqiao Group shares (upside 67%) may be driven by their double-digit dividend yield, while Zijin Mining Group shares (upside 44%) may be driven by its entry into a new growing lithium production segment.
Shares of Russian steel companies - Severstal, MMK, . They used to be stable generators of quarterly dividends. Now that's a thing of the past. The industry has proven vulnerable to sanctions. Companies have lost a significant part of their exports, domestic demand for steel products has also fallen, prices are falling, and the tax burden in 2022 has increased. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the decline in demand for steel may last another year and a half, and will return to pre-crisis levels only by 2030. While steel stocks used to be favorites and a basic part of investment portfolios, now owning them is associated with increased risks.
remain the strongest paper in the MosBeX Index. The company's shares have added 33.5% since the beginning of the year, while the index is down 35.5%. Apatit, owned by PhosAgro, is the global leader in high-grade phosphate rock production and the largest European producer of phosphate-based fertilizers. Amid global fertilizer shortages, PhosAgro has proven virtually immune to sanctions. High product prices have provided PhosAgro with strong results in H1 2022 and virtually guarantee strong results for the year. PhosAgro shares were among the dividend leaders after the board of directors recommended a dividend of 780 rubles per share, including the final dividend for 2021 and the interim dividend for 1H 2022. The current dividend yield is around 9.8%. PhosAgro shares were included in the blue chip index of the Moscow Exchange on September 16. Our rating on them is "Better than the market.
The $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill signed by U.S. President Biden will drive growth in 2022-2023. Caterpillar's wide range of equipment (CC $ 260, potential 35%) and its demand for large projects makes the company a beneficiary of government injections into the economy. At the same time, Caterpillar benefits from increased capital spending by mining and energy companies. Emerson Electric (CC $ 119, potential 39%) will also benefit from increased investment in infrastructure, especially in the context of the U.S. fight against climate change. In addition, Caterpillar and Emerson's high dividend yields of 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively, above the average of 1.6%, are attractive to shareholders.
demand, especially those that can reduce or shift costs to consumers. Let's highlight Procter & Gamble (CC $152.45, upside 9.7%), a dividend king whose products are in steady demand and also sell at a premium due to brand recognition. The manufacturer also plans to better control costs and purchases to maintain profitability.
Weaker than competitors look food retailers, whose portfolio has a large share of hypermarkets (Lenta, OKEY), as the development of more relevant formats in the medium term will put pressure on profitability and cash flow, and the weaker dynamics of comparable sales and traffic - on revenue growth rates in the short term.
The company is still moderately attractive against the background of its successful reorientation to the APR markets and higher hydrocarbon prices. Among individual companies, we single out "" and NOVATEK. "Rosneft keeps prospects of development due to its Vostok Oil project, actively increases its exports to India and by the results of the year may pay about 55 rubles in dividends per share, which corresponds to 14,513T yield. "NOVATEK is one of the beneficiaries of the global gas price growth, as it has no problems with sales. The company's attractiveness is also backed by its plans to develop LNG production and its adherence to the dividend policy - the amount of payments by the end of the year may reach 107 rubles per share (9.1% of profitability).
The amount of payments for the second half of the year may only be 10-15 rubles due to the increased tax burden and decreased exports, and the future of the company remains very uncertain because of the accelerated loss of the European market.