Growing oil will keep the Russian stock market from a major drop
So far, the long-term trend remains upward. But there is an impression that the indicator is ready to break it and is trying to go sideways. A strong support for the Mosbirch Index is the lower boundary of the uptrend channel, which is now just above 4,100 points. If the situation across the ocean does not improve, we might test the support as early as this week.
So far the US stock indices give a signal for a small correction. There are no risks of strong decrease, just the long expected speculative profit fixation of the last weeks of growth is going on in the US market.
As of this morning, U.S. futures are down a third of a percent. Therefore, it is very likely that domestic investors will take this benchmark as the main one, and will continue to carefully sell off most securities.
The domestic market will be held back from a strong decline by expensive and still rising oil. If strong inventory data from the U.S. Energy Department comes out today, oil prices will try to end the day above the technical resistance of $86 a barrel, which is less than a dollar away.
Oil prices are still driven up by global fuel shortages. There is speculation that the U.S. will soon start selling gasoline from strategic reserves to support domestic consumers. But this will not lead to a drop in oil prices.
Therefore, in such conditions, it is necessary to look for the moment for speculative buying and with the aim of catching a percentage and a half of growth.
Gold is still unable to consolidate above resistance of $1820-1830 per ounce. A slight strengthening of the dollar against a basket of world currencies is having a negative impact on the precious metal's quotations today. However, we believe that it is just a matter of time before gold breaks through the resistance.
That's why gold mining stocks are worth keeping in portfolios. Right now it is one of the safest investments.
Yesterday the ruble strengthened against the dollar by 0.85%. The reason for the growth was the weakening of the "American" on the world arena and the emergence of demand for OFZ. It is not excluded that major exporters returned to the market with the delayed sale of currency due to the weekend.
The ruble is weakly declining in morning trading today. In the first half of the day, the Russian currency will be supported by anticipation of OFZ auctions. The results of the day will largely depend on the success of the Ministry of Finance placement.
The technical picture of the dollar-rouble pair is also uncertain so far. On the daily chart, support for the pair began to form around 70.8 rubles per dollar, where the pair is trading now.