Deal of the Century

Your trading history in the competition "A day in the life of a trader" offers us a 28-year-old mathematician named Nikolai.

In 2007, I read Prekter and Frost's book about Elliott waves, and was surprised to learn that there is A method for catching global pivot points in financial markets. By correctly catching such a pivot point, you can make a deal with great leverage, forget about it for a couple (or ten) years, and then close it with a gigantic profit!

This unencumbered approach to trading on the stock market appealed to me, and I began to look for markets that were ready to turn around.

And the markets have ended the cycle...

I was lucky, I got interested in this topic just when almost all markets were completing their multi-year trends. As I found out, currencies are the easiest to trade, and among them I liked the pound and the yen the most: one was going down and the other was going up.

Since I only wanted to make one trade, I carefully studied the poundoena chart, and saw a perfect five waves down from 1989 to 1995, and then an abc correction to them, reaching the top of the second wave. All in all, a perfect situation, with the potential to fall two and a half times in five years.

I decided to open an account with a broker and put 2000$ into it, sell poundoena with a leverage of 100 to come in a few years later for the proceeds - by the most pessimistic calculation, it would have to be at least 300 000$It's not a bad increase on your pension.

I sent the money by bank transfer, after which I learned for the first time what a trader's nervousness is: I began to fear that the pound won't wait for the deal of the century and will run down. I must say that while I was comprehending the law of waves, it had already fallen by thirty figures, and while I was gathering my strength and opening an account, it was correcting, which was to my advantage - I wanted to catch the top of this correction.

And so, at the beginning of July the money reached the broker, the account was opened, and the correction reached the golden section from the fall, and even a little higher. Deciding that I needed to act before it started, I executed my trade of the century on the first day. Poundoena rushed downas if it was just what I was waiting for. And then my strategy cracked at the seams: instead of going back to the terminal in a couple of years, I looked at it every ten minutes, admiring my foresight.

Thus passed a week that flew by like one fine day. The maximum drop of the poundoena was 10 figures, and my balance exceeded 20 000$. The next week flew by quickly, too, but like a nightmare night: the prankster returned to my selling point, exceeded it by a figure and a bit, and zeroed out my depositIt was a big deal, and then it immediately resumed falling, not returning even close to the level of my deal. In four years it has fallen by more than half...

Let's try it another way

All this epic caused me a powerful attraction to playing on the stock exchange, a few months later I opened an account with another broker, but with the exact opposite strategy - I decided to take not the quality of deals, but their quantity, and for training I used the Russian roulette contest. After experiencing a lot of ups and downs, I finally got fed up with this strategy, and decided to make the deal of the century again, to finally get away from the monitor for a year or two.

The second "rake"

This time I chose as my victim Dow Jones index. I sold it with a good shoulder, and myself went to Kamchatka, away from computer temptations. I walked around volcanoes for a couple of weeks, and then I was supposed to fly to the Valley of Geysers as a volunteer, but, "due to the arrival of top officials", all flights there were postponed at that time, so I had to stay in a hotel in Yelizovo for a few days.

As luck would have it, the hotel had internet, and I couldn't resist the temptation to see how Dow Jones was doing. On the one hand, he was doing poorly, and my balance had tripled. On the other hand, a lot of indicators were pointing to the fact that it now really wanted to go up, which was against my original prediction.

Mentally I knew that the best thing I could do was to take a profit, or at least set a stop-loss, but psychologically it was very difficult to give up potential deal of the centuryso I put it off until later, and then the Internet at the hotel ran out. In the end my second deal of the century failed, but instead of watching it fail, I watched the geysers and bears, which was a qualitative step forward.

Hopefully, the third deal of the century will combine quality prediction from the first deal, Olympic calm from the second, and luck, which there is no way to do without.