The ruble-dollar exchange rate can easily return to 80

The Bank of Russia's decision to raise its key rate came as a surprise to many analysts. Speculators in the U.S. since late January were betting on the fall of the ruble. But over the past week, the Russian currency has strengthened against the dollar by 1.45% on the foreign exchange market, and traders are betting on the ruble strengthening for the first time in 2 months.

Isn't it too risky to buy, given the significant risk of new sanctions? Alexander Kuptsikevich, analyst at FxPro, answered Fortrader magazine's question.

- The speculator action data does not include recent news, such as the latter's "weakness" call. More importantly, it does not include the events in Turkey and the minor note on the dynamics of oil last week.

Also, we should not forget that the ruble is often governed not so much by technical factors as by the statements of officials. This is the flip side of the emerging economy currency. The last most alarming bell for financial markets was Lavrov's and Volodin's comments about the need to reduce the dollar's influence in the economy. Nabiullina also spoke indirectly about this on Friday. America is reacting very nervously to statements that undermine the dollar's hegemony in the global financial system, so we should be prepared that the desire to "punish" Russia will only intensify in the coming days and weeks.

In the short term, the situation is now against the Russian currency, making the ruble vulnerable to an impulsive move to the upper boundary of the trading range at 76.00 per dollar from its lower boundary below 72.50.

It seems that only at the upper border of the range we should seriously consider the resistance of the currency sellers against the ruble. If the ruble does not meet buyers above 76, it could very quickly return to the test of 80.