As long as there is no fixation below 532-538, the priority for Rosneft shares is the growth scenario
On Thursday, at the beginning of trading, securities went below the local support level of 553. After the retest of 553 intraday, the first downside target of 541.4 was met. However, at least there is still a target near support level 538, and it will organically fit in the upward movement.
The technical picture today points to a rebound to the resistance level on the 4-hour chart at 548. If it fails to break through, it is highly probable that the securities will decline to 538 support in the coming days. And on the length of the momentum on the 4-hour chart there are targets at 526, which coincides with the first targets of the weekly scenario.
The medium-term technical picture is mixed. On the one hand, there are downside targets in the 516-526 support zone and 510 due to the earlier weekly breakout of 558. These levels will be interesting to build up long positions. On the other hand, the medium-term growth scenario with targets around 595-604 is still relevant. As long as there is no fixation of the daily candle below the 532-538 support zone, the growth scenario is in priority.
On the 4h chart, the RSI curve is in the neutral zone at 41 p. The RSI indicator shows no divergence from the chart. On the 4-hour chart, the price has gone below the 200 and the 50-day moving average. Technical indicators are showing mixed signals. The first thing to watch for is the price fixation on the daily chart above or below the levels: 558 and 532 to determine a scenario for further stock movement.
What to do? For open medium-term long positions, the main target for selling is in the 595-604 area. When the 572-578 area is reached, it is possible to fix part of the long positions.
The external background this morning is moderately positive. Futures are up 0.2%. Asian indices are trading mostly in the green zone. up 0.5%. Rosneft shares will open slightly above Thursday's closing level.
Rosneft is the first oil company whose shares returned to the levels seen before the February-March sell-off. Since the November 2020 lows, Rosneft quotes have climbed to 69%.
Last week's candlestick has consolidated above the 544 level, making it less likely that it will continue to fall to the weekly support levels of 490-510. This scenario is not a priority as long as the price has not moved below 526 support.
To cancel the downside risks, we need to consolidate above the resistance level of 558. In this case, we expect a scenario of growth to the medium-term targets of 595-600. There is still a global growth target at 620-650.
In the long term picture, you have to look at the weekly candle close at the end of Friday's trading.