The uptrend in the stock market is over, the downtrend does not want to start
The Russian stock market yesterday expectedly pulled back from resistance of 3080 points on deteriorating external background. However, there were no serious sell-offs, with the major securities declining broadly, with the exception of Mosbirzhi shareswhich lately are often going against the market. Demand for stock exchange securities can also be interpreted as the fact that investors are not ready for massive sales and continue to look for promising ideas, and Moscow Exchange only benefits from increased volatility and trading volumes.
He was still weak. SberbankThis is the evidence that foreign investors stopped buying Russian shares aggressively, and without them there is simply no money to resume growth. This is evidence that foreign investors have stopped aggressive purchases of Russian shares, and without them there is simply no money to resume growth.
So far, the decrease of both Uber and the market as a whole fits into the framework of profit fixation after the rapid growth in the first half of the month. However, it is not necessary to speak about any full-fledged correction, rather, a highly volatile sideways trend is being outlined.
Yesterday after the close of main trading the US markets were up, but as of this morning the broad index futures are down within half a percent. So we will open near yesterday's levels, maybe with a slight decline.
Further market dynamics will completely depend on external background. Friday factor is unlikely to affect the market today: there are no special risks of transferring longs through weekend, investors do not want to sell securities, and there are not many shorts open.
We will not give any specific recommendations on securities for today: uptrend is over, downtrend does not want to start. That's why it's better for mid-term investors to take a pause in trades, and speculators should focus on dynamics of futures on S&P500.
The ruble failed to start a new wave of devaluation yesterday; the decline of the "Russian" in the first half of the day was redeemed in the second half. The dollar-ruble pair finished the day near the level of 76 again. The external background for the ruble before the opening of trading is slightly negative. A decline in U.S. futures suggests a decrease in appetite for risk, but the stability of the pair of euro-dollar and oil do not really confirm it.
But still, we do not see any particular prospects for the growth of the Russian currency. Yes, dollar-ruble may go under 76 and even reach its downside target of 75. But no further strengthening of the ruble should be expected until oil prices increase and the fundamental improvement of the situation in the Russian economy.
We do not expect oil to rise either. Now the quotes are supported by expectations that in the situation of local excess of supply over demand the OPEC+ countries will at least decide not to increase production in the first quarter of next year. But at any moment traders may consider that even with the condition of this decision the surplus will not leave the market. According to estimates, the lockdowns in a number of European countries and a sharp increase in Libya's production have resulted in about 3 million barrels of "excess" oil per day appearing on the market.
Therefore, the range of $40-45 per barrel is relevant for oil in the coming days.
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