Stock market review for September 13, 2021

Positive dynamics prevailed. closed just above the psychologically significant mark of 4000 points. The leaders of growth in the absence of news were shares of Samolet (SMLT 4,673.8, +6.94%). Shares of OVK (UWGN 109, -4,97%) were worse than the market. USD/RUB pair traded in the range of 72.50-73.50.

The Bank of Russia raised its key rate to 6.75%. This increase is within the expectations of market participants, so it did not cause a sharp reaction of the investment community. In fact, the upward revision of the rate by 0.25 p.p. reflects the dynamics of inflation.

According to Chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina, the rate increase protects banks against contraction of the deposit base, caused by the outflow of funds to the stock market. The interest rates on loans and deposits on the retail market are unlikely to change significantly by the end of the year (the increase will not exceed 0.4 p.p.). Thus, money has not become significantly more expensive for banks, while the level of overdue debt remains low.

Much more significant for the market was the statement of the Central Bank that it does not exclude the possibility of raising the key rate to more than 7% this year: this could happen if inflation accelerates. However, the regulator will try to keep the rate within the framework of neutral monetary policy, in which it roughly corresponds to inflation.

Apparently, a rapid decline in the growth rate of prices should not be expected and investors in this situation should take a closer look at OFZ with indexed (by the inflation rate) coupon or par value. "Long" OFZs, whose yields are currently around 7%, are less profitable because of the risk of their value declining with a further rate hike.

(RTKM 93.16, -0.05%), spec. buy, target: 99 rubles. At the moment, the stock has corrected to the area of the annual minimum, but the technical picture and significant fundamental potential indicate that the securities can demonstrate a strong positive dynamics. If the traget of 99 rubles is reached, the target for the mid-term horizon is 128 rubles.

We expect mixed dynamics. Target for the Moscow Exchange Index: a range of 3980-4020 points. Forecast on the pair: 72.50-73.50.