Analysis
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I think you have seen more than once how the market seems to react paradoxically to certain news. Yesterday on the increase of inflation in the UK the pound went up by 50 points, although a year ago it hardly reacted to this news, yesterday on Consumer Confidence the market did not react at all, and in a couple of months it will make flights of wounded woodcock at the slightest deviation of the released data from consensus forecasts of Reuters or Bloomberg. So what's the point? The point is that the market reacts differently to the same news at different stages of the economic cycle. But it's all "blah, blah, blah, blah," as they used to say in one...
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Financial crises are a very common phenomenon in today's economy and bring a lot of trouble to both businesses and governments. Financial crises, their mechanisms and consequences are quite diverse. In order to better understand the essence of the phenomena taking place, it is useful to be able to identify crises. To "get acquainted" with financial crises we will look at their typology and the general characteristics of each type. A financial crisis can be defined as a situation where some financial companies or assets (like stocks or bonds) lose a large amount of their value. Clearly, financial crises primarily affect the financial sector of the economy. However, due to the fact that the real sector is closely...
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Еврозона – 12 стран, которые используют евро в расчете валового национального продукта: Германия, Франция, Италия, Испания, Нидерланды, Бельгия, Австрия, Финляндия, Португалия, Ирландия, Люксембург и Греция. Европейский Центральный Банк (ЕЦБ) Контролирует валютную политику Еврозоны. Орган принятия решений – Совет Управляющих, который состоит из Правления и управляющих национальных центральных банков. В Правление входят Президент ЕЦБ, Вице-президент, и четыре других члена. Цели политики Европейского Центробанка Основная цель ЕЦБ – ценовая стабильность. Здесь два основных “столпа” валютной политики. Первый – перспектива ценовых событий и риски ценовой стабильности. Ценовая стабильность определяется как удержание Согласованного Индекса Потребительских Цен (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices – HICP) на…
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При разработке трейдером торговой тактики и анализе рынка большую помощь в установлении точного входа в рынок и выхода из рынка могут оказать линии поддержки и сопротивления. Линия, которую цена не может пробить вниз, называется линией поддержки (Support – sup), а линия, которую цена не может пробить вверх, называется линией сопротивления (Resistance – res). Канал, образующийся в результате проведения параллельных линий (sup, res), называется оптимальным диапазоном торговых изменений, при наклоне его вверх можно говорить о повышающемся тренде, при наклоне вниз тренд будет понижающийся. Уровни поддержки и сопротивления имеют большое значение в техническом анализе валютного рынка . Вот основные правила, которые необходимо…
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Knowledge of economic cycles helps us understand the meaning of changes in the currency or stock market, in a company or enterprise, and in the economy as a whole. The development of economic processes is cyclical: growth is necessarily accompanied by a decline, followed by recovery and new growth. Economic cycles are periodic fluctuations in the levels of production and consumption (supply and demand). Usually the dynamics of the economic cycle can be divided into the following phases: 1. Recession or downturn. There is a decline in business activity, a drop in production, a decrease in employment and income. Depending on the degree of economic decline and the time factor of the recession, a distinction is made between a crisis and a depression. A crisis is an imbalance in the economy,...
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Exchange rates of the world's major currencies are created when banks trade on the world market and are determined by supply and demand for a particular currency. The currency of the country will be in demand and competitive in the market, if the economic and political state of the country is stable. The central bank of any country has a large number of financial instruments to support the stability of its own national currency. The main method for this task is to regulate the amount of money in circulation. An oversupply of one currency in the market creates an increase in its supply and causes a decline in the rate of that currency in relation to others. In turn, a shortage of currency in the market generates a demand for it and will lead to an increase in the exchange rate....
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Currently, there are many quantitative approaches based on the search for nonlinear and chaotic dynamics in the behavior of financial markets. Among these approaches, a significant role is played by fractal and multifractal methods, which are also used to predict stock market crises. Among them, a class based on the study of the local regularity of financial time series can be distinguished. For this purpose, various indicators are usually constructed, analyzing which it is possible to draw conclusions regarding the regularity of the exchange rate series. In order to get an effective forecasting model it is necessary to thoroughly analyze the nature of the influence of factors which influence the formation of the exchange rate. The important role is played here by the availability of statistical data related to the considered factors and exchange rate dynamics. The development of the market is determined by fundamental...
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One of the most popular tasks of currency dealing and technical analysis of financial data is forecasting. In this or that form people have faced forecasting tasks at all historical stages of civilization. But as long as there were no scientific approaches and methods, the forecasts were made on the level of intuition, knowledge and experience of people. For example, folk omens. The beginning of technical analysis is an attempt to systematize long-term observations of the weather or people's behavior. Most often it was done for the purpose of predicting tasks on which people's very lives often depended. Usually forecasting is associated with predicting future events, in particular the values of temporal...
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So why is the NASDAQ going down? The 5th Kondratiev technological cycle is about to end. From 2015 to 2018 we are waiting for the sixth and NBIC-convergence... Behind an incomprehensible fantastic acronyms there are a lot of "promoted" concepts: nanotechnology, biotechnology and a new stage of knowledge formation and acquisition - cognitive science. Let me say right away that nanotechnology is not what Chubais in "Rosnano" or sellers of cosmetics with "nanocreams" and "nanosocks" is engaged in. These are the very same nanorobots, self-assembled chips and other wonderful things. All sorts of Windows 7, iPads and "netbooks" - this is the limit of modern NTR, which began in the 80's and reached its peak in the 95th year (Windows 95). The technology has exhausted itself. Watching the latest World Mobile...
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