Stock market review for January 27, 2021

The trading dynamics was multidirectional. Raspadskaya (RASP 164.02, +3.11%) were the leaders among the most liquid securities. The outsiders were (LKOH 5,590.0, -2.31). The USD/RUB pair declined to 75.

The IMF presented its forecast for 2021. The organization assumes that the Russian economy will grow by 3%. GDP decline in 2020 could be 3.6% (the first estimate will be released on January 28), with the global economy expected to lose 4.3%. We believe that the IMF forecast reflects conservative expectations for the recovery of the Russian economy, which are realized subject to strong external shocks and high inflation. In the absence of these factors, the Russian economy is capable of growing by more than 3.5% this year.

OPEC expects the oil market to recover quickly. According to the organization's forecast, demand may increase by almost 6 million barrels per day, up to 96 million. Investments in production will also recover, which will cause the price of oil to go up. The White House has also given the oil market a surprise: shale gas development may be banned in some regions, which can cut the supply of oil in the USA by about 150,000 barrels a day. Freezing of 800kbpd Keystone XL project will result in higher transportation and procurement costs. In our view, the news is short-term positive for energy prices and shares of oil and gas companies, which corrected the day before.

(MAIL 1,984.0, +1.23%), spec. buy, target: 950 rubles. Technical factors point to a rebound to the upper boundary of the downward channel of 2150 rubles.

We expect multidirectional dynamics. The trading will be influenced by movements on external platforms, where corporate reports will be played out. On the local market, the focus is on the OFZ auction. Forecast on the pair: the range of 74.00-75.00. Target on the Mosbirge index: 3350-3400 points.