Map and Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and Foresight Issues
Author: Greenspan Alan
Original title: The Map and the Territory: Risk, Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting
Publisher: Alpina Publisher, 2015.
ISBN 978-5-9614-4699-9
Pages: 412 pp.
Format: 70×100/16 (170x240 mm)
Weight: 830 g
Circulation: 2,000 copies.
Binding: hardcover
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A book about mistakes and the financial crisis
The financial crisis demonstrated, among other things, the failure of economic forecasting. I undertook the post-crisis research that led to this book, because I wanted to understand what our mistake was and what lessons we should learn from what we had done. It is essentially a book about foresight, about human nature, about our ideas about the future and what we should do about it all. It is about the short term and the long term and, perhaps more importantly, about that foggy moment when one passes into the other.
Alan Greenspan is an American economist. Chairman of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System from 1987 to 2006.
About the book "Map and Territory: Risk, Human Nature, and the Problems of Foresight
The title of the book has a profound meaning, best conveyed by the well-known proverb: "Smooth on paper, but forgot about the ravines. The book by Alan Greenspan, who served 18.5 years as head of the U.S. Federal Reserve System, is interesting primarily because it analyzes the reasons why the existing economic models were unable to predict crises, in particular the crisis of 2008.
From the author's point of view, the point is that these models do not take into account the behavioral aspects of economics and finance that play a large role in the modern world. He offers his approaches to evaluating these aspects - people's instinctive propensities - and incorporating them into the models. The author supports his reasoning and conclusions with the results of research on an extensive body of evidence.
The book became a bestseller in many countries, it is well known to financiers and economists around the world. In Russian Greenspan's fundamental work is published for the first time. The special value of the book is given by the fact that this is the latest edition of this year (the last changes, updating the information of 2013, were made by the author in the text only a month ago).
In this book you will learn
- on the causes of global crises and the weaknesses of today's best economic models;
- about the secret mechanisms of macroeconomics;
- about what techniques and tools can achieve economic stability and financial growth.
Один из крупнейших банков в Канаде в 2008 (Лемон Браззерс) году за пару недель приказал долго жить, поэтому аналитика и прогнозирование – гарант жизнеспособности денег.
Economic forecasting will be successful only when based on an accurate assessment of the geopolitical situation and those political processes that will affect the economy. An example is the lifting of sanctions on Iran, which opened the door to the world oil market, the price of which went down. The author of the book offers us his vision of the problem and describes the tools and ways to reduce risks in economic forecasting.
In my opinion, in the modern economic system it is very difficult to predict anything, because one cannot ignore the political factor, the hidden interests of individual subjects, the factor of collusion... One can only identify certain regularities and try to analyze them.
Надо почитать этого гуру экономиста, стоявшего у руля печатного станка доллара в момент пика популярности этой валюты в мире. Интересно на кого он будет показывать “стрелки”, вместо признания в жадности своих друзей банкиров с WALL-STREET при кризисе 2008 года.
Алан Гринспен, много лет управлял ФРС – главным эмиссионным центром мира. Мысли и опыт таких людей всегда будут востребованы. Книга будет полезна для расширения общего кругозора.
This is more versions than truth, too diverse and unpredictable human nature, but worth reading.
there must be a lot of economics in the book, but also a lot of politics. It would be interesting to read.
Думаю, что – это не единственный автор, раскрывающий причины кризиса, и как с ними бороться, но, они все равно происходят.
It's a must-read. No matter how they systematize the causes and course of crises, things still happen differently the next time. I love this kind of literature at the intersection of economics and philosophy.
To be honest, I would be very interested in reading this book. I think it has the truth in it, and then who knows.
This book is very interesting, what good is there!!!
I hope that by studying this book and learning the weaknesses of modern economics, financiers and politicians can learn how to prevent economic crises or minimize their consequences. It is interesting that Alan Greenspan paid attention to people's instinctive tendencies, I never thought that this factor has a great impact on the economy.
How do you prevent situations like the Eyjafjallajökull eruption or a mine explosion in Latin America? And then the markets would go down with a bang.
I think everyone should read about the financial market. I don't have much experience in forex, but even that I use in other areas of my life.