Risks of a further decline in Sberbank shares still remain
On Thursday, Sberbank shares rebounded from five-month lows. So far, it is of a technical nature. The sanctions concerns, which brought the quotes here, are not worsening, but we can't say they've disappeared either.
It was noted that a move below 300 led to a bullish divergence in RSI and MACD. A return to near-term resistance with a rise above 300 was likely before the sellers would become active again.
Yesterday at the highs, the price reached 305. So far this does not change the short-term downtrend in any way. We have to break through the 317-320 levels, which is the trendline that was built, and get a foothold above the 200-day moving average.
Downside risks remain for now, given that the price has come out of the 300-330 consolidation and is precariously balancing at the round mark.
The external background is neutral this morning. APR indices demonstrate mainly negative direction. Futures are up 0.1% in the morning, down 0.1%.
Sberbank's share price has historically been in an uptrend. In 2020, it was able to come out of a broad consolidation and renew record levels. In October, the price almost reached the round mark at 400. The subsequent correction significantly threw the quotes downward. The one-year rising trend was broken and it went below the 200-day moving average.
The bank is a leader in the Russian economy, developing many digital services not directly related to banking. Industry analysts, according to Interfax, maintain a "Buy" recommendation on the long-term horizon. The consensus forecast is at 421.8 rubles.