Gazprom shares managed to stay within the former 335-350 rubles trading range

On the previous trading day they decreased by 2.83%, closing at 337.6 rubles. The paper looked better than the market, which decreased by 3.61%. The volume of trading in the stock on the main market amounted to 40 billion rubles, with the average monthly volume being 13.9 billion rubles.

Gazprom shares fell along with other blue chips on Thursday, reacting to the negative foreign policy backdrop. A bounce in Europe, which recouped much of the decline from the beginning of the week, acted as a supporting factor. Trading turnover amounted to Rb 40bn, which is more than three times the average daily volume over the last month.

Despite the pronounced negativity, the quotations managed to remain in the former trading range of 335-350 rubles. The lower boundary acted as a stable support. The price chart is still above the 75-period average on the daily chart, which supports the positive view on the paper.

The accumulation of resistance in the range of 350-370 rubles is still a restraining factor. Horizontal levels can be drawn through the levels of 351, 355 and 360 rubles. While a breakout of a single level may provoke the closing of short positions and the joining of new players to the movement, in the case of a cluster of levels, such a reaction may take place only with very strong support from buyers. Therefore the instrument might stay sideways until the sentiment improves considerably or another driver appears.

On the medium-term horizon, the outlook for the instrument remains positive. Gas prices in Europe are high and could remain so throughout 2022. This allows us to be optimistic about the 2022 results and future dividends. In addition, the 2021 payout is expected to be an all-time high. As we get closer to the record date, quotations may win back the dividend factor and rise to higher levels.

The external background in the morning is moderately negative. U.S. indices declined after closing the main session on the Moscow Exchange. Asian indices are mostly in negative territory. Futures are down 0.03%. Brent crude oil is down 0.2% today.

Gazprom shares have surpassed their all-time highs, and gas market conditions are promising to continue rising. High hydrocarbon prices, the prospect of high dividends and the launch of exports via Nord Stream 2 could support the stock and push it closer to RUB 400 per share.

The consensus forecast exceeds 400 rubles per share. Industry analysts, according to Interfax, maintain a "Buy" recommendation on the long-term horizon.