Nornickel shares started a short-term upward trend
Nornickel shares on Friday's trading developed the rebound that started at the end of the previous trading day. The securities formed a short-term rising trend.
The nearest growth target is now 25,000 rubles. Taking into account the excessive fall of shares concerning the consequences of the introduction of duties, there is a high probability that the rise will continue and the level will be reached in the next few days. As long as quotes are held within the current steep uptrend, positive short-term expectations persist. In case the sentiment worsens, we should watch out for support of 24,500 rubles.
In the medium term, it is important for the bulls to return above 25,500 rubles and the 200-period moving average. This would mean a break of the downtrend from mid-July. Then there is a flatter bearish trend, the border of which is near 26 000 rubles. Only with its breakdown will it be possible to count on a rise to the maximums.
It should be noted that the deadline for the receipt of applications to participate in the buyback of Nornickel shares expired on June 18. The shares repurchased within the framework of the buyback will be paid until July 3, 2021. After that it is likely that a part of funds will be reinvested - this should be a positive driver for Nornickel's quotes.
The external background is neutral this morning. U.S. indices after closing our main session on Friday are still slightly up. Asian markets today are trading multidirectional and do not show a unified trend. Futures are up 0.1%, down 0.1% and near the $76.1 level. All this allows to assume, that at preservation of an external background the opening will pass near the previous day's closing.
Since 2009, Nornickel shares have been in a big up-trend. Growth impulses alternate with periods of sideways consolidation, and drawdowns are redeemed rather quickly, indicating the strength of the trend.
Trend indicators on the weekly timeframe are looking up. The latest correction wave from the highs of May was due to a decline in prices of the company's key metals, the strengthening of the ruble, as well as the introduction of export duties. The pullback caused a bearish divergence in RSI. Nevertheless, the signal potential has already been worked out, and the redemption candle with a long tail reflects the activation of buyers at the local lows.
Reinvestment of funds received by shareholders from share repurchase may have a positive impact on the dynamics of quotations in the next couple of weeks. This should create additional demand for the securities.
In the weekly interval, the key support can be defined as 22,000 rubles. This level is unlikely to be reached within the current wave, unless new negative drivers emerge. Main resistance area is near 27,000-27,500 rubles. In case of its breakdown the targets will be shifted to 28,700 rubles.