The Russian stock market, after a negative opening, yesterday managed to get into the plus, and quite confidently, adding 0.6% to the MosBirch Index. Shares of oil companies were the drivers of growth: +3.9%, + 3.2%.
Most likely, their purchase was a result of the inflow of new funds from investors, and domestic ones at that, who buy "names". We still do not see any medium-term growth prospects for the oil sector, as the current oil prices and production volumes will not allow companies in the sector to show strong financial results. There are more interesting ideas on the market.
In particular, these are securities of ferrous metallurgists, which were also among the leaders of growth yesterday. They were playing off the resumption of growth in global steel prices and the rise in prices of steelmakers' products on the domestic market. The growth of steel prices may last at least a couple of months. Therefore, shares of companies in the sector should be bought on drawdowns.
However, today the situation started to deteriorate. After yesterday's negative closing, US futures are down by half a percent this morning. Oil went to the neighborhood of 56 dollars per barrel, losing 0.7% to yesterday's closing. After a short pause, the dollar growth resumed. It is not excluded that the euro-dollar pair will test the serious support of 1.21.
Such a negative external background can be explained as "after-the-fact" fixation after Joe Biden announced a plan of new stimulus of $1.9 trillion. The first market reaction was neutral, but fears are growing that the new, including "helicopter" money, will lead to higher inflation and, as a consequence, a faster increase in the US Fed rate.
Actually, all stock markets look overbought right now, so Biden can be taken as a reason for a correction of a few percent. But the fall is unlikely to be deep and prolonged.
Aggressive investors today can try to capitalize on the decline in Rosneft and Lukoil, which have been heavily overbought in recent days.
Metallurgical securities, which will be supported by the weakening ruble, may again be better than the market.
The ruble paired with the dollar ended yesterday's trading just above the strong support of 73. This mark has already repeatedly turned the pair upwards. Today's picture suggests that such a scenario will be repeated this time as well.
However, the ruble is now receiving strong support from the sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters, accumulated over the New Year holidays. The tax period is ahead. Therefore, we may not see a strong fall of the Russian currency. But after the end of these drivers it may well go to the area of 76.