Shares of "steel" companies should be bought on drawdowns

The Russian stock market, after a negative opening, yesterday managed to get into the plus, and quite confidently, adding 0.6% to the MosBirch Index. Shares of oil companies were the drivers of growth: +3.9%, + 3.2%.

Скорее всего, их покупка стала следствием притока новых средств инвесторов, причем отечественных, которые покупают «имена». Мы же по-прежнему не видим среднесрочной перспективы роста «нефтянки», поскольку нынешние цены на нефть и объемы добычи не позволят компаниям сектора показывать сильные финансовые результаты. На рынке есть более интересные идеи.

In particular, these are securities of ferrous metallurgists, which were also among the leaders of growth yesterday. They were playing off the resumption of growth in global steel prices and the rise in prices of steelmakers' products on the domestic market. The growth of steel prices may last at least a couple of months. Therefore, shares of companies in the sector should be bought on drawdowns.

However, today the situation started to deteriorate. After yesterday's negative closing, US futures are down by half a percent this morning. Oil went to the neighborhood of 56 dollars per barrel, losing 0.7% to yesterday's closing. After a short pause, the dollar growth resumed. It is not excluded that the euro-dollar pair will test the serious support of 1.21.

Столь негативный внешний фон можно объяснить, как фиксацию «по факту» после озвучивания Джо Байденом плана нового стимулирования экономики в объеме 1,9 трлн долларов. Первая реакция рынка была нейтральной, но увеличиваются опасения, что новые, в том числе «вертолетные» деньги, приведут к росту инфляции и, как следствие, более быстрому повышению ставки ФРС США.

Actually, all stock markets look overbought right now, so Biden can be taken as a reason for a correction of a few percent. But the fall is unlikely to be deep and prolonged.

Агрессивным инвесторам сегодня можно попробовать заработать на снижении сильно перекупленных в последние дни «Роснефти» и «Лукойле».

Metallurgical securities, which will be supported by the weakening ruble, may again be better than the market.

The ruble paired with the dollar ended yesterday's trading just above the strong support of 73. This mark has already repeatedly turned the pair upwards. Today's picture suggests that such a scenario will be repeated this time as well.

However, the ruble is now receiving strong support from the sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters, accumulated over the New Year holidays. The tax period is ahead. Therefore, we may not see a strong fall of the Russian currency. But after the end of these drivers it may well go to the area of 76.