The dynamics of hydrocarbon prices today does not please buyers in the shares of Gazprom


Bidding results

At the previous trading session Gazprom shares decreased by 0.59%. It closed at 205.03 rubles. The paper looked worse than the market as a whole. The trading turnover amounted to approximately Rb 4bn.

Short-term picture

Gazprom shares continued their correction last trading session in the absence of foreign investors. The stock returned to the lower boundary of the uptrend channel. Buyers tried to intercept the initiative, but the closing was not far from the start of trading. The candlestick formation does not carry a clear signal. Trade turnovers were low. External background in the morning may support the paper.

Despite the generally positive external background, the dynamics of hydrocarbon prices are not happy. Gas futures prices on NYMEX are losing more than 8% today, while oil is slightly down. If the buyers in Gazprom fail to follow the external stock markets, the quotations may return to the medium-term support trend line near 203 rubles. The support range of 198-200 rubles may also become a potential target.

However, based on the sentiment on the external stock markets, today the scenario of the attempt to continue the growth in the ascending medium-term channel is more probable. In this case the resistance of 207 rubles may again become the main target for the buyers. After fixation above it would be possible to speak about one more attempt of full-fledged gap closing on 217 rubles.

  • Resistances: 206-207 / 212 / 217
  • Supports: 200 / 198 / 194

External Background

The external background is moderately positive this morning. The U.S. market was not trading. Futures on S&P 500 Index grows by 0.5%. Brent oil down by 0.3%. Asian platforms are trading in positive territory. All it gives the grounds to assume, that at preservation of a background the opening will pass above level of closing of the previous trading day.

Long term picture

Gazprom's quotations reached the psychologically important level of 200 rubles on the backdrop of positive corporate news. Last week the June maximum of 207 rubles was overcome. The quotations headed towards the resistance of RUR 217. But they failed to close February gap or just hold near the mentioned points.

After quite a swift correction the quotations fell under the level of 207 rubles and reached the support of 200 rubles. Buyers were able to return the stock above the medium-term trend line of support. But threats of new sanctions against Nord Stream-2 carry high short-term uncertainty. There are risks of deepening the drawdown to the support of 194 rubles. A rebound in gas prices would help avoid a more significant decline.

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