Stock Market Review for April 12, 2021

Negative dynamics prevailed. The leaders of growth among the most liquid securities were shares of Ozon (OZON 4,666, +3.92%): probably, investors decided to win back expectations of inclusion of the security in the MSCI index in May. Among the outsiders were shares of Alrosa (ALRS 101.16, -3.41%) amid the release of data on sales in March. Closing in the USD/RUB pair was the highest since mid-November.

(AFLT 66.22, +0.84%) plans to have all aircraft on the line by June. Currently, 52 aircraft out of 221 are not in use. However, the news has not yet been played down, which, in our view, is due to concerns over the closure of air service with Turkey and possible increase in COVID-19 incidence in Russia. At the same time, we believe that there will be no decrease in air transportation. In Q2, passenger traffic may grow by 20% QoQ, which is already close to the pre-crisis level, and if the borders are opened to all European destinations, demand may be agitated.

(GMKN 24,450.5, +2.20%) discusses dividends. The total payout per share for last year may amount to 1,021.22 rubles. The company recently proposed an updated dividend policy, providing for a dividend of 50-70% of free cash flow: this is the last payment in a significant amount before the planned reduction of the dividend by two or three times on the background of rising capital expenditures. However, the quotations were supported by another news - about 4% of securities repurchased for the amount of $2 bln, which is about 11% of the freely traded shares. Purchase of such number of securities from the market will lead to growth of quotations. If major shareholders do not participate in the buyback, their shares will increase, and the size of dividend in the future will also increase due to the redemption of treasury shares.

(MAIL 1,718.6, -1.43%), spec. buy, target: RUR 2,000. There is no negative news background. The stock is trading near the support level of 1700 rubles.

We expect multidirectional dynamics. Despite the growth of external markets, the week may start with a decline. Forecast for USD/RUB: corridor 76.50-77.50. Benchmark for the MosBirch index: range of 3400-3450 points.