Stock market overview for January 14, 2022
Market and company news
The movement of quotations is characterized by negative dynamics. The RTS index lost 100 points during the afternoon trading session, which formally makes the market's drop the maximum since March 2020. The main reason is the news of geopolitical nature.
The media quoted a negative outlook from one of the investment banks on investments in Russian assets. Besides, the cost of the country risk grew: long positions were mostly cut by non-residents. However, it is important to note the non-country factors as well, in particular, the decrease in the external commodity and stock markets.
lost more than 2% and oil fell below $84 amid rising COVID-19 morbidity, accelerating inflation in the U.S. and the euro zone, as well as an increase in jobless claims. The depth of the correction will largely depend on the adaptation of players to the news background and the epidemic situation.
Due to increased volatility in the markets, further key rate hikes cannot be ruled out. The yield of OFZs exceeds 9% on almost the entire curve. If the situation does not improve, an increase of the key rate by 0.5 p.p. in February cannot be ruled out.
EMC (GEMC 1000.25, -1.45%), spec. buy, target: 1100 rubles. Quotes are trading near the long-term support level of 1,000 rubles. The paper may be considered as defensive, as the medical sector will look better than the broad market amid rising COVID-19 incidence.
We expect mixed dynamics. It is not excluded that the market will win back some of the losses. Important statistics will be industrial production and retail sales in the U.S. and China's foreign trade turnover. The pair is predicted to reach 75.5-76.5. Target for the Moscow Exchange Index: 3650-3700 points range.