Stock market review for September 20, 2021

Negative dynamics prevailed. On Friday the market lost almost all weekly growth. Consolidation was caused by negative dynamics on external sites. Shares of SC Samolet (SMLT 5,716.4, +7.96%) became the leaders of growth. YATEK securities (YAKG 133.95, -13.47%) corrected. The USD/RUB pair was trading in the range of 72-73.

(QIWI 602.5, -1.07%) updated the minimum. The news background around the issuer is mixed. On the one hand, the company sold to Otkritie its stake in Tochka Bank for almost RUB 5 bln. At the same time, FC will not have to conduct an accelerated sale of Qiwi shares, which could negatively affect the quotations.

However, not all news is so optimistic, and investors tend to react most sharply to negative information. In particular, Qiwi failed in the battle for the bookmaker payments market (estimated at more than 130 bln rubles). As a consequence, the company may lose up to RUB 2 bln per year. (the revenue of this segment in Q2 amounted to RUB 6.05 bln).

Thus, it cannot be ruled out that foreign investors will continue to sell Qiwi shares and its securities will be under pressure, as it is impossible to quickly restore the falling revenues. On the other hand, Qiwi has previously warned about the possibility of revenue reduction by 10-20% and profit reduction by 15-30%, so this circumstance has already been played out.

Currently, the company is trading quite cheap from the fundamental point of view: its market capitalization almost corresponds to its book value (P/B is 1.12, P/E is 3.8). Thus, these securities may be interesting for long-term purchases. The company is very liquid: Qiwi's debt was about RUB 2 bln and its financial assets were about RUB 55 bln, and they will increase further after the sale of Dots.

(SNGS 32.93, -0.89%), spec. buy, target: RUB 36. These securities have always been considered as protective assets in case of market correction and ruble depreciation. The long-term minimum for them is around Rb 32, but when approaching it, the quotes have always quickly bounced upwards.

We expect a decline within 1%. Negative sentiments are increasing in the external markets. A downward breakdown of the psychologically important mark of 4000 points may provoke a sell-off. Target for the end of the week for the ruble benchmark: 3900 points. USD/RUB forecast: 72.50-73.50.