Stock market review for February 3, 2022
(NLMK 218.62, +1.54%) will report Q4 results. According to general market expectations, revenue will be $4 113 million with EBITDA of $1 279 million, which corresponds to a profit margin of 31%. Profit, according to preliminary estimates, will reach $862 mln. However, since steel price at the beginning of Q4 was close to its maximum ($6 thsd. per ton), the company's results may far exceed the consensus forecast.
Inflation in Russia has accelerated. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the CPI rose to 8.82% in January, although the rate of price growth slowed in weekly terms. According to the Bank of Russia's estimate, inflation accelerated to 8.7-8.9%. At the same time, both agencies forecast a decline in CPI by the end of the year to 4.0-4.5%.
On the one hand, this may be due to a reduction in aggregate demand against the background of rising rates. On the other hand, as a rule, inflation does not slow down amid tight monetary policy. On February 2, there were forecasts from investment banks, indicating that the RF Central Bank may raise its key rate by 150 bp. (although, most likely, not in one meeting). In any case, the acceleration of inflation with a high probability will be the driver of the rate increase by 1 bp in February.
(YNDX 3,703, -0.62), spec. buy, target: 4,200 rubles. In our view, securities of the domestic IT-sector leader, which lost 50% since November, are strongly oversold, with a rebound of 10-15%.
We expect multidirectional dynamics. The course of trading will be largely determined by the external and news background. The focus is on the number of jobless claims in the U.S.. Forecast for the pair USD/RUB: 76.5-77.5. Benchmark for the Moscow Exchange Index: 3500-3600 points range.