Stock market review for April 7, 2021
The USD/RUB pair reached its highest level since November. The reason for the ruble's weakening is considered to be foreign policy factors, but in our opinion, this is not the case. As a rule, the realization of the corresponding risks is accompanied by a strong movement on high volume, and this has not been observed so far. Technical picture has a more significant influence on the ruble quotes. If this picture is taken into account, a jump into the 79-80 range is more likely should it exit the 73-76 corridor. However, this exit from the corridor is likely to be short-lived and in one to two weeks the ruble will return to its previous values. There are no fundamental factors for ruble weakening in the short term. Inflation has jumped to 5.8%. At the same time in the Ministry of Economic Development believe that its peak is passing and in April it will be about 5.5%. The IMF forecasts economic growth of 3.8% this year and a decline in inflation to 4.5%. This is the most optimistic forecast.
(SBER 282.49, -2.20%), spec. sell, target: 278 rubles. The uptrend is not broken, but it failed to update the maximum. A new upward movement is likely after a technical correction from the nearest support level near 280 rubles.
We expect mixed dynamics. Forecast on the USD/RUB pair: range 76.50-78. Mosbirch index will fluctuate in the range of 3450-3500 points. The Ministry of Finance, in our opinion, will not cancel the auction on placement of government bonds. Growth of OFZ yield at the background of stable repo rates attracts players. It is not ruled out that the placement will once again gather large volume.