Shares of the "oil industry" will be the leaders of growth today
The main event of the day was the meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. The regulator expectedly left the rate at the same level and at the same time kept the volumes of government and mortgage securities purchase. The fears of a rapid winding down of the quantitative easing program were not justified.
This caused the dollar exchange rate to fall and, accordingly, the value of commodity assets to rise. The only alarming thing is that the U.S. stock market yesterday did not react to this event at all. But today American futures are growing by half a percent.
So the opening is expected to grow. Shares of oil companies should be better than the market as a result of oil moving to the area of 67 dollars per barrel. It is not excluded that oil will try to rush to 70 dollars per barrel, but still the fair price for the next month is seen in the neighborhood of 64-66 dollars per barrel.
A medium-term bet should be placed on , which lags behind Rosneft and Lukoil in growth dynamics, while a speculative bet should be placed on , which has fallen the most in the last couple of weeks.
Gold miners will also grow. Their securities should be kept in portfolios, as gold shows all the signs of forming a new upward wave. Now gold is trading at the resistance of 1780 dollars per troy ounce. Its breakdown is quite capable to strengthen the uptrend.
yesterday fell by 2.3%. This was a consequence of the realization that the announced share buyback does not support quotations that much. Given that Potanin and Deripaska are unlikely to present their securities for buyback, retail investors can "surrender" only every 7-10 shares. But today MMC is supported by the growth of prices for its products.
We recommend to refrain from building up medium-term longs on shares of ferrous metallurgists until the situation with FAS claims is clarified. If they are large, one or two more collapses of quotations cannot be avoided.
A slight negative for shares of commodity companies is the strengthening of the ruble. The ruble was slowly strengthening on Wednesday, but the positive news from the Fed gave it new strength. Today in the morning the dollar-ruble pair is trading around 74.3.
It seems that before the emergence of new political threats, the dollar-ruble pair will once again fall back into the familiar range of 73-76. However, we advise to buy the ruble against the dollar only speculatively. Potential political and sanctions risks have not gone anywhere, and the state of the domestic economy does not give hopes for a significant strengthening of the Russian currency.