Risks to NLMK shares are still present
In NLMK shares, there was a moderately negative scenario with a decline under EMA200. At the end of last week, the support of 225 rubles was tested, from which there was a small bounce upwards on Friday. The daily MACD curves continue to look down and the RSI is near the oversold zone.
Today the external environment is relatively stable, which could support the buyers to return above the EMA200. If this stability persists, we could be talking about taking the 236.5-ruble support point, with a further scenario on closing the dividend gap.
At the same time, the risks are still present, including due to deterioration of the technical picture. Decrease might continue under Rb 225, with the further test of Rb 222. - level, which could not be overcome in the beginning of July, and the growth phase began.
The external background is mixed this morning. U.S. indices are down after closing our main session on Friday. Asian markets are trading mixed today and show no unified dynamics. Futures are up 0.18%, up 0.34% and near the $73.2 level.
Taking into account the results of the previous evening trading we can assume that if the current background remains, the opening on NLMK shares will be close to Friday's closing level.
The stock has been in an uptrend since 2014, which was broken in mid-2019 and reversed its direction. The bottom of the downtrend in NLMK stock was found around 100 rubles at the peak of the market panic due to the coronavirus pandemic, in March 2020. After updating the annual low, the trend in the stock changed to an uptrend. Buyers bought back the entire year's drawdown.
The RSI indicator is above the neutral point and MACD curves continue to turn sideways. Long-term expectations are moderately positive, a return and a test of 280 rubles would be a positive signal for further growth towards 300 rubles.