The rebound in Russian shares may be interrupted today
But in the evening the picture took a turn for the worse: the stock market in America went down. This is logical and expected. What looked stranger was that the U.S. market rallied on Wednesday after the Fed cut its GDP growth forecasts and raised its inflation expectations at the same time. So everything fell into place last night.
The Nasdaq Index suffered the biggest loss of 2.5%. And everything makes sense here: the tightening of monetary policy is most negative for high-tech issuers with a large debt load.
Therefore, the results of the Mosbij Index are a bit misleading. If you look at the IMOEX2 Index, which takes into account the dynamics of morning and evening trading, its increase was more modest 1.5%.
Yesterday 20% soared amid new exacerbations of global coal problems. Raspadskaya rose by 7.5% for the same reasons. So the Russian stock market continues to provide an opportunity for excellent earnings.
After the rise in 10% on Wednesday, it did not continue to rise. The paper still behaves unpredictably.
The technical picture of the Russian market remains unfavorable: both indices failed to break through above 3,800 points, and it is too early to speak about the end of the decline phase of the Russian market.
Today U.S. futures continue to decline, while oil is down in percentage terms. So there are no external growth drivers for domestic shares. As of this morning, all blue chips are trading in the red zone, with average losses of about 0.2%.
Let's add here the Friday factor - with a high probability in the evening investors will reduce the longs for the weekend, because the political risks, though weakened, but not gone from the agenda.
So it is worth trying to trade from the shorts again today, selling Sber and oil. better not to touch it and look for a moment to buy it. Despite the problems with Nord Stream 2, the paper promises to be better than the market in the near future due to high gas prices and record profits this year.
We are waiting for a meeting of the Bank of Russia on the rate. With a very high probability, the regulator will raise the rate by 1 percentage point at once. This will not cause a special reaction of the market, as the actions of the Central Bank are expected and are already included in the quotations of both the ruble and the stock market.
More intriguing will be the press conference of Elvira Nabiullina, from whom we expect orientation regarding the further monetary policy and inflation forecasts.
So far the ruble continues to decline weakly, within 0.1%, after yesterday's decline by 0.4%. The dollar-ruble pair has been storming the support of 73.5 for a long time, but could not break it. Now we should test the resistance of 74.7.