You have to be careful with Gazprom shares now

In the previous trading day rose by 0.64%, closing was at 228.4 rubles. The paper looked at the level of the market, which added 0.87%. The volume of trading on the main market amounted to 2.9 bln rubles, the average monthly volume being 9 bln rubles. Average daily range for 5 days is 410 minimum steps.

Gazprom shares rose slightly on Friday. The last time the trading turnover was lower than on Friday was on February 20, when the trading day fell on Saturday due to the holidays.

The technical picture remained generally the same. On the 4-hour chart we can observe a steady growth of local minimums. The 200-period average supports the quotations. From above, the upward trend is restrained by the resistance of 230 rubles, the full breakdown of which will open the way to the next targets.

At the same time, the sideways trend has been rather long. It is a nervous situation for the traders, who bought above 220 rbl. in hope for further growth and still hold long positions. In a month and a half the instrument failed to consolidate higher than 230 rbl. three times. One more false breakthrough may provoke a wave of sales, which in its turn may cause a formal break in the uptrend and short-term fall below Rb 220. The probability of such scenario inclines to a cautious view on the paper.

The medium-term view is moderately positive. Even in case of the above-described correction scenario, the forecast will still assume recovery, if the fundamental picture persists. With a favorable sentiment, the levels of 245-260 rubles may be reached by the summer.

The external background is neutral this morning. U.S. indices were not trading on Friday. Asian indices are trading multidirectional. today in the negative 0.6%. Futures on Gazprom shares during the morning session added 0.1%. All this suggests that if the background remains, the opening will be near the closing level of the previous trading day.

The potential of the first growth wave after the break of the downtrend in 2020 was realized. After a small correction, the shares made an attempt to consolidate above 230 rubles, but buyers quickly ceded the initiative to sellers and quotations returned to the previous levels. Probably, the flat period will last a bit longer. Nevertheless, in the future, relatively high hydrocarbon prices, the prospect of high dividends and the probable completion of Nord Stream 2 may support quotes and help recovery to the 12-year highs near RUR 270.