The scenario with the recovery of Lukoil shares to the region of 6300-6400 rubles is in jeopardy
Lukoil on Tuesday failed to develop a rebound and returned to two-week lows near 5,950 rubles. The company's shares have fallen back from the 50-period average, which now acts as a dynamic resistance. The key pressure factor was a sharp decline in oil prices, which hit the buying activity. The scenario with restoration to the area of 6300-6400 rubles turned out to be under the threat, though chances for realization still remain.
If markets remain tense, quotations may slightly deepen the correction. Negative signal would be lowering below 5950 rubles, which would open the way to the decrease to 5800 rubles. In the future, buyers may intercept the initiative, as oscillators are close to the oversold zone, which limits the downside potential.
The medium-term view is moderately positive. The theoretical fair range of 6,000-6500 rubles provides a slight upside within the designated boundaries. In a favorable conjuncture, the instrument may again attempt to consolidate near Rb 6500, but without a significant driver, it looks an unlikely scenario on the horizon of the coming weeks.
The external background in the morning is moderately positive. U.S. indices declined after closing the main session on the Moscow Exchange. Asian indices are mostly in negative territory. Futures are up 0.06%. Lukoil stock futures are up 0.47% during the morning session. All this suggests that if the background remains, the opening will take place near or above the closing level of the previous trading day.
After exiting the prolonged consolidation around 5,500-6,000 rubles, Lukoil quotes are ready to continue recovery. The upside potential is located near the levels of early 2020, when the quotations marked the historical maximum at RUB 6810. The record could be rewritten. The psychological level, which could be used by investors as a profit-taking target, could be 7,000 rubles.