No signals for a correction in Rosneft shares yet

At the previous trading session rose by 0.84%. The closing price was 516.5 rubles. The securities were traded at the market level. The trading volume amounted to 5.5 billion rubles.

On Monday, Rosneft started trading with a decline to the support level of 505. The price failed to break it, which was followed by growth to local highs at 519. There are no technical signals for the correction. The securities continue their upward movement.

The technical picture points to the upside targets at 548 with intermediate resistance at 520. The prices approached the first target of 520. I believe a correction in the 470-478 area, which is the buyers' control zone, is needed for a further move to 548. If these boundaries hold and the stock stays above 478, the uptrend will continue.

There is a risk of a smaller correction to the support level of 484 and a bounce from it with further growth - without a hike in the 470-478 area.

Until there is a breakout and fixation of the daily candle below 505, the correction with the local targets at 484 and 478 is postponed.

On the 4-hour chart the RSI curve is in the overbought zone around 82 p. The RSI and MACD indicators show bearish divergences. The price is above the SMA and EMA moving averages. Most of these factors point to excessive upside speed in the stock. A potential decline will defuse the oscillators and create a reserve for later growth.

The external background is moderately positive this morning. Futures are up 0.5%. Asian indices are trading mostly in the green zone. on the plus side by 0.4%. The current situation suggests that if the background remains intact, the opening of trading in Rosneft shares will be higher than the closing of the previous session.

Rosneft is the first oil company whose shares have returned to the levels seen before the February-March sell-off. Since the November lows, Rosneft quotations have risen 40%.

The RSI curve is in the overbought zone at 74 p. The MACD histogram shows no divergence with the price movement, which indicates that the buyers have enough strength for further growth.

The previous weekly candle reached 519.6, an area of October 2018 highs.

In my opinion, the price movement formed in early November tends to 520-548 area. The global growth target is at 620.

If it closes below 485 this week, the next important level, 470, could be the downside target.

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