The trend on the Russian stock market remains downward

The Russian stock market was able to gain more than a percent yesterday, mainly thanks to oil surging to $85 a barrel and corresponding growth of oil sector securities. Oil was supported by statistics from the U.S. Department of Energy, which recorded a drop in inventories much higher than expected.

As a result, oil quotations ran into a zone of strong resistance of $85-86. Taking into account the absence of further growth drivers and technical overbought, the pullback of oil looks quite logical.

The political background is not cheerful either. Russia has failed to reach an agreement with the United States and NATO, although the very fact that a dialogue has begun is positive. But we wanted more...

In the United States, the initiative to "punish" Russia in the event of an invasion of Ukraine was born again. The sanctions are still the same: a complete ban on transactions with Russian government debt, disconnection from SWIFT, and a ban on the flow of gas through the Nord Stream-2 pipeline. All this has already been said and had no special effect on the ruble assets. But there is an unpleasant residue, and it will prevent non-residents from buying Russian shares.

Finally, U.S. futures have been down a third of a percent since morning. Therefore, it is not surprising that the blue chips are trading in the "red" zone in the morning trading. The biggest loss of about 5 % is borne by , which cleared the dividend today.

So the tactics of trading from the short again becomes relevant. It still looks very weak, and yesterday on the general growth closed the day with a half-percent loss. It's worth a try to short the oil sector waiting for oil decline to the area of $82-83 per barrel or even lower.

The Moscow Exchange Index will not be able to hold above 3,800 points again today, so the trend of the Russian stock market remains downward, and the target for the Moscow Exchange Index of 3,500 points is relevant.

The Ministry of Finance yesterday announced an increase in currency purchases within the framework of the budget rule by 60 %. So we can put a bold cross on any significant strengthening of the ruble. Moreover, the impression is that exporters are very reluctant to convert hard currency earnings into rubles. This year only on Monday and Tuesday there was an increased supply of currency, although usually non-residents were actively selling currency accumulated over the weekend during the first full working week of the new year.

There is a high probability that the pair will move above the resistance of 74.7 again today, which will create technical prerequisites for further depreciation of the ruble.

In addition to that, we should add a strong drop in OFZ quotations for four sessions in a row: traders are betting on a 0.5p increase in the CBR key rate in February. We believe the regulator will not complete this process in February, as inflation will continue to grow mainly due to an increase in social payments. Naturally, the sale of OFZs will put pressure on the ruble.