Levels of 250-260 rubles in Gazprom shares may be reached by the summer
On Friday, Gazprom's shares briefly went below 230 rubles, but by the end of the evening session they recovered their losses and closed the day in the plus. The sideways trend in the shares has lasted for the third week already. During this time, near-term TTF gas futures on the ICE and CME exchanges added about 20%, which positively affects the gas company's earnings forecasts. In the coming weeks, this factor may be reflected in the quotes, which will contribute to the continuation of the medium-term uptrend. The signal for a new rising wave may be a breakdown of the level of 236 rubles with subsequent testing of the zone of 238-240 rubles.
The medium-term view remains positive. The uptrend is in force, as indicated by steadily rising local lows on the 4-hour and daily timeframes. Gas prices remain high, supporting optimism on Gazprom's earnings outlook. With a favorable sentiment, the Rb 250-260 levels may be reached by summer.
External Background
The external background in the morning is mixed. American indices grew after the closing of the main session on the Moscow Exchange. Asian indices are trading multidirectionally. The futures on the fall by 0.25%. today in the minus by 0.05%. Gazprom stock futures are adding 0.05% during the morning session. All this suggests that if the background remains the same, the opening will take place near the closing level of the previous trading day.
The potential of the first growth wave after the 2020 downtrend break was realized. After a small correction, the stock attempted to consolidate above RUB 230, but buyers quickly ceded the initiative to sellers, and quotes returned to previous levels. The sideways period is likely to last a little longer. Nevertheless, in the future, relatively high hydrocarbon prices, the prospect of high dividends and the probable completion of Nord Stream 2 may support quotations and facilitate a recovery to 12-year highs around Rb 270.