Yesterday's stock market rally is still just a rebound on the decline
Yesterday, the Russian stock market managed to rebound strongly, adding 1.75% on the MosBirch Index thanks to a sharply improved external background. But for now, this is only perceived as a rebound in a falling market - the downtrend remains in force.
Today, the external background is neutral and we will open in the neighborhood of yesterday's closing of global trading. Most likely, we will not see any significant changes in Western indices during the day, as investors will take a wait-and-see attitude on the eve of the announcement of the results of the vote on the next US president.
In such conditions it is difficult to give any recommendations. We will not trade tomorrow, and there is a high probability that Thursday will start with a significant gap.
Among individual securities we continue to look positively at Sberbankand the very MosBirch и "Norilsk Nickel". The safest option today is Surgutneftegaz preferred shares, the price of which far from takes into account the possible dividends that the company may pay next year due to the fall of the ruble.
By the way, yesterday the ruble reacted very weakly to the improvement of the external background, and did not begin to repel the morning losses. In many respects, this is due to the intensified sales of OFZ bonds. In general, it is logical: Russian shares have been slowly selling for more than a month, while the "bears" came to the bond market only last week.
It is not excluded that the pressure on the ruble will increase tonight due to the desire of some investors to wait out the uncertain time in the currency or at least hedge ruble positions with the dollar. But this trend will be counteracted by speculators reducing long marginal positions on the dollar-ruble pair.
Oil is trading slightly above $39 per barrel, but the risks of its departure to the area of $35 have not been removed from the trading agenda and can be realized under any negative. The main problem for oil remains the reduction in fuel consumption due to a series of European lockdowns and increased production by Libya.
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