For the first time in a long time Gazprom shares look worse than the market
On Thursday, Gazprom shares on the day almost repeated Tuesday's pattern. The shares built a descending triangle with the lower boundary at 360 rubles, but, unlike Tuesday, this boundary remained in force until the close of trading.
It is important to note that yesterday Gazprom shares looked worse than the market for the first time in a long time. At the same time, gas prices continued to renew their highs. Such weakness of the stock could indicate a decrease in buying activity, but trading volumes remain above the monthly average. Therefore, it would be more logical to assume that after the active growth the activity of sellers, fixing profit on long positions, has increased.
In such a situation, reversal looks unlikely, as well as a deep correction. If it is not possible to quickly return above 362 rubles, the quotes may spend some time in the range of 355-360 rubles until the overbought area decreases and the buyers will not be able to intercept the initiative.
In the medium term, there is potential for growth above Rb 370, but the movement may not develop so dynamically. The high dividend yield at the end of 2021 could be a one-time event, so investors will not rush to buy at historical highs, watching the situation on the European gas market and forecasts for 2022.
The external background is mixed this morning. U.S. indices declined after closing the main session on the Moscow Exchange. Asian indices are trading multidirectional. Futures are down 0.5%. Today they are down 0.2%. All this suggests that if the background remains, the opening will be near the closing level of the previous trading day.
Gazprom shares have surpassed pre-pandemic levels, and the gas market environment gives hope that the rally will continue. High hydrocarbon prices, the prospect of high dividends and the launch of exports via Nord Stream 2 could support the stock and push it closer to RUB 400 per share.