It is too early to talk about a full-fledged recovery of Russian shares

The main event of the day yesterday was the US Federal Reserve Board meeting. The regulator expectedly increased the rate of winding down the asset purchase program. But now most Fed members are expecting a threefold rate hike next year and bringing it to 2% per year in 2023. At the same time, the Fed lowered the growth forecasts for the U.S. economy with a simultaneous increase in expected inflation.

In general, nothing good. But, surprisingly enough, the U.S. stock market reacted to the news with a rapid growth. As of this morning, the rebound continues: U.S. index futures are up about a quarter of a percent, and oil is up a percent.

Against this backdrop, Russian shares, which reacted rather modestly to the American surge last night, are also rising in morning trading. The market is better off, Rosneft and .

However, buying should not be carried away, the risks of a renewed correction are high. Stocks in America are near historical highs. It is not excluded that they can be rewritten, but there are no special growth drivers, at any moment profit taking can start, which will negatively affect the domestic market as well.

Separately, we should pay attention to , which took off yesterday on 10%. There is information that another Russian company claims to start exporting gas. It is not excluded that this is exactly Surgutneftegaz. But we are already used to Surgut taking off by tens of percent within a few days. It is impossible to predict how long the paper will continue yesterday's rise, as long as it rises 0.8%.

It will be possible to talk about a full-fledged recovery of Russian shares only after the Moscow Exchange Index goes above 3,800 points. Until then, it is likely to seriously test the downside target of 3,500.

Yesterday evening's positive news helped the ruble to recoup all the day's losses and close higher against the dollar by 0.3%. But today in the morning the ruble has already given up all of its evening gains. The dollar-ruble pair has been consolidating for the sixth session already, just above the 73.5 mark, which it is not particularly eager to go down.

Usually after such a prolonged weakly volatile sideways movement follows a strong movement. Most likely, it will be upward, and the pair dollar-ruble will rush to the area of the first resistance 74.7. Although, in case of tough comments of the Head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina tomorrow after the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, the pair for some time might go to the support of 73.