Our People - Vladislav Gurov, Lead Analyst at Broco

Today our guest is a legend of domestic trading, a famous analyst, a teacher and for some people almost a market guru - Vladislav Gurov. Vladislav has been on the foreign exchange market since 1991. In the period 1996-1999 he was a manager and a consultant of the largest commercial companies and banks. Cooperated with such banks as Moscow National Bank, Private Bank, Vnesheconombank, ABN Amro, Smit Barny, Soverign Forex Ltd. Since 2001, he has published articles on the analysis and forecasting of trends in financial markets.

- Hello, Vladislav. I would like to start the interview with a traditional question: How did you start your trading activity?
- I did not start out in the stock market, and therefore the definition of "stock market activity" does not quite fit me. I, like many people in the early 90s, was looking for ways to realize myself in the new world. Banks appeared like mushrooms after the rain, often created by people who were not professionals at all. Thus, by mere chance, I first joined a company run by former Communist Party bosses and they sent me to a bank to find out what I could gain in that sphere. I ended up working in banking. For a short time I worked as a dealer, and later I became a consultant of an interbank association. Directly trading on the Forex market with marginal conditions became actively engaged in since '93, although I started to conduct some operations back in 1992.

- What attracted you to exchanges so that you decided to devote your life to it?
- It is difficult to say what attracted me to the so-called exchange activity. Maybe the main thing was that all these years I have been trying to understand the logic and patterns of trading participants' behavior, the opportunity to look for my own way. The fact is that methods of analysisI have sought to find my own way of understanding the causes of changes in the markets. I have sought and continue to seek my own way of understanding the causes of change in the markets. I think I'm getting a little good at it. In any case, I've been giving lectures on prognosticating methods to financiers and bankers with some regularity for more than 10 years, during which I've often proved some of my assessments correct.

- Have you ever had the desire to change your field of work?
- I have had the desire to change the field of activity more than once, but I got used to this market and therefore it has become more of a living thing for me. If there is something that depresses me in this kind of activity, it is that I can't understand it to the end, that I can't comprehend with my own mind. Another fact becomes the attitude toward myself, toward my merchant psychology and sometimes unable to overcome greed and fear - the great obstacles for any trader to profitable and, most importantly, stable trading.

- You were practically at the origins of development in Russia, how much has changed since then?
- In the time I've been in the market, a lot has changed in the Forex market. Unfortunately, the changes were not in Forex itself (there are real changes, but they are of a different order). In Russia, as well as in the whole world the conditions of rendering services for trading on Forex market data have changed - so it's more correct. These changes are not for the better. The emergence of opportunities to trade on so-called "mini" or "micro" terms has made such operations similar to betting in a casino. In turn, technical analysis techniques have strengthened these signs many times over. This makes me sad, because the difficulty of assessing trends in this market, multiplied by the factor of increasing risk with minimal margins, increases the percentage of those who lose money. Once upon a time, back in the late '90s, I made the point that the term "Forex" It's an interbank market, so you need to understand who is doing what in this market. This is an interbank market and therefore it is necessary to understand who conducts operations in this market, why and for what purpose. If you just look at the chart, how can you not be surprised that it is not a chart of currencies, but of the weather, or even a cardiogram.

- Are there points that the current structure and operation of the exchanges lacks?
- I cannot say anything about what the existing structure of stock exchanges lacks or lacks, because the organization of stock exchange business - a separate specificity, which I have never been involved in professionally.

- What about market behavior and trader activity?

- It is not uncommon for traders to say that the strength of the chosen trading strategy for trading, as well as the method of market analysis, decreases with time. Can you confirm this theory? How much have your tactics changed over time?
- My premise is that for trends in any market, the most important factor is the valuation of an asset over a period of time. This is a simple and perfectly realistic assessment of some commodity, the change in the value of which was planned and on this change was calculated. The asset was purchased most often on credit terms. Consequently, at some point in time, the asset and its change in value is valued; and for this valuation, quite specific price levels of the asset market, the commodity market, are considered, stock Or currency. I'm not even trying to get into a discussion about the fact that the lending factors for buying an asset, specific market prices (levels, as we say) do not and cannot change under any conditions of change in the economy. It's just the basis of everything, specific times and levels.

- Which forecasting method do you prefer? Why do you choose it?
- I have already said about the method of prediction a little earlier, and just to clarify that, of course, I am referring to technical analystsI have been using some lines that express the upper and lower boundaries of the price fluctuations of a particular asset in a certain period of time. Another thing is that I use my own understanding of what price levels to use for constructions at what moment. I have been studying the market trends for many years, and therefore the methods that I have developed over the years cannot go away. Maybe sometimes it is necessary to add to them the understanding of the current conditions, but the basis of methods of construction of forecasts and the analysis itself is unchanged.

- How do you assess the current world economic situation? Do you have any specific predictions for the near future? How will countries emerge from the crisis and will there be a second wave?
- The current economic situation, as I understand it, is far from promising an end to the global crisis and therefore extremely dangerous with surprises. I am not ready to judge which country will emerge from the crisis faster, as this is more the prerogative of economists. However, in my opinion, the USA will finish the crisis earlier and only after them will the rest of the countries breathe a sigh of relief. It seems to me that the current situation on the currency market is seriously tense in anticipation of the USD strengthening and the fall of GBP. This is not due to the confidence factor in the U.S. currency, but to the fact that there is no confidence in GBP and EUR when their value is high on the market. This is also due to the fact that if the crisis is ready to end, then the growth of real demand, not speculative, from the real economy and producers will make the demand for what has to be paid for the commodity assets - USD - increase. Of course, we are not talking about any serious increase in the value of USD, but for us speculators the change in the value of EUR in EUR/USD exchange rate at 10-15% (which is a likely change from current levels to 1.28-1.35) will seem like a serious increase in USD value. In fact, the market will simply come, as I think, to the most comfortable EUR/USD ratio in the area of 1.30.

- What advice would you give to our readers who are starting and continuing to work in exchanges?
- I can give you only one advice - whatever method of analysis you use, pay more attention to your own psychology as a trader, speculator. You can flip a coin to determine the direction of trades, but it is more important to understand your ability to resist at the moment of profit and take it in time, or at the moment of loss and not accumulate it, hoping that the market is about to turn around. Of course, I can wish to study the market by those books that were read and studied by those who make this market, and these are unpopular books on technical analysis.

- Thank you for an interesting conversation, good luck to you.
- Thank you. All the best.