Will oil become cheaper again?

Negotiations on a nuclear deal with Iran could result in Iranian oil returning to the market as early as July (aggressive scenario) or October (base case). Iran would be able to supply between 500,000 and 2 million barrels of oil per day.

Will the market accept an increase in oil volumes or will it start cheapening again? Dmitry Alexandrov, head of analytical research department of UNIVER Capital IC answered the question of Fortrader magazine.

- The Iranian factor could indeed bring about 1.5 million bpd back to the market within two to three quarters, which would be essential for the supply/demand balance in the event of a slower consumption recovery.

However, in a favorable scenario for the global economy, these volumes will not create a significant distortion, although they will require a slower increase in quotas from OPEC+. Nevertheless, there could be some negative pressure on the Urals price differential against Brent.

Brent oil price