Too early to buy Tinkoff stock
Why are they growing and is it worth buying them now? The question of Fortrader magazine was commented by Nikolai Dudchenko, an independent financial analyst.
- In January of this year, we already looked at Tinkoff shares in terms of their growth prospects. Our forecast was optimistic, and we were not wrong. Now let's go back to the analysis of the company's key fundamentals and determine whether these shares are now suitable for investment.
I usually recommend that you start looking at a company by looking at its "" level, i.e. the proportion of debt in the company's assets. At Tinkoff Bank, according to the latest published statements for 2020, this ratio is 85.2%. This is quite a low value for the banking business (for example, the share of debt in assets is 90.5%). An important factor in assessing the risks of banking activities is "" (NPL). At Tinkoff Bank this indicator is kept at 9.7%. For comparison, it is 4.3%; VTB has 5.7%. Conclusion: according to this metric TCSG is still inferior to the largest market players.
Next, let's evaluate the company or, simply put, the market value of the business. At the moment, the capitalization of Tinkoff is about 1.1 trillion rubles. At the same time, the value of the group's assets exceeds 859 billion. We can conclude that the market value of the business is 1.2 times the value of the company's assets.
One of the key performance indicators of any company is the valuation . In the case of TCS for 2020, the company's net income was 44.2 billion rubles, up 22.4% from 2019. For 2018-2019, net income increased by 33%.
Over the past few years, the group has been able to significantly grow its loan portfolio from 102 billion in 2016 to 376.5 billion in 2020. The company's deposits have also more than quadrupled in the past 5 years.
Tinkoff for 2020 was 40.6%, ROA 6.4%. We can conclude that the management of the company works quite effectively.
The key price point is 25.4. Again, let's look at the competitors: Sbera has 9.31; VTB has 15.5. We must admit that by this key indicator, as in the case of NPL, TCSG loses again. It is quite possible that the share price is quite high.
What immediately catches the eye is the explosive growth in capitalization. The share price is currently in a steady-growing price channel with the boundaries of 4,900-6,300 rubles. Here, however, rather alarming "bells" are drawing attention, which indicate that the price may turn and correct in the near future.
Of course, the first target for the possible correction will be the lower boundary of the price channel, i.e. the level of 4900. Further, it is possible to move to the nearest local maximum - the level of 4800 rubles per paper.
Tinkoff bank shares: I don't think now is the right time to buy Tinkoff Bank stock. It is worth thinking about adding it to the portfolio after the stock corrects and then, quite possibly, the price will become more attractive for opening longs.