Precious metals: growth and decline factors

Precious metals - is not only a common commodity, like wood or oil, but also a tool for monetary investment, i.e. investment vehicle. Fluctuations in the value of precious metals are influenced by a number of factors. Today we will consider them in more detail.

Demand, Supply and Investment Attractiveness

Factors affecting the value of precious metals can be divided into two notional groups.

The first group includes supply and demand factors The main factors that influence the development of precious metals are the industry, jewelers, discovery of new deposits or depletion of the current ones, introduction of new extraction technologies or improvement of processing technologies. All of these factors characterize any of the precious metals simply as a metal, without regard to their precious qualities.

The second group - investment attractivenessi.e. purely financial factors. For example, the global economic and political situation, the investment climate. During various crises and shocks investors tend to invest in the most stable and reliable instruments, which can include precious metals.

Another factor is the fluctuation of the exchange rate dollar, поскольку доллар является мировой валютой. Отношение драгоценных металлов к доллару аналогично отношению евро к доллару – в обоих случаях доллар как валюта котировки ведет себя аналогично. Если доллар дешевеет — металлы дорожают.

The price of metals is also influenced by the situation on the stock market, because many investors' interests are represented there.

Decisions made by precious metals producers can also be singled out as a separate factor: for example, a decision can be made to suspend production in order to increase the price, as oil-exporting countries do on the oil market.

Taking into account all of the above factors, you can analyze the dynamics of precious metals and create some forecasts of their value in the near future.

Gold - an instrument of margin trading

За декабрь 2012 года (по 25 декабря) стоимость золота несколько снизилась: с $1716 до $1659 за тройскую унцию. Снижение можно было бы считать значительным, если бы не показатели месяцем раньше – $1714 на 1.11.2012 и $1678 на 2.11.2012. На протяжении уже 4-х месяцев gold holds approximately the same level,  его стоимость находится в коридоре $1650 – $1750, что говорит об отсутствии глобальных изменений в тенденции развитии цены в ближайшее время. Такое состояние рынка называется «Flat». Необходимо отметить, что, сравнивая золото с другими инвестиционными инструментами, нужно понимать, что it is enough even in a calm market volatileThe fact that it is often used not only as a tool for investment, but also as a tool for margin trading.

The biggest decline in the value of gold in December 2012 was observed from December 17 to 20: from $1697 to $1657, where gold quotes were able to reach six-month minimumwhich is directly related to the current situation in the U.S., where there is a discussion of possible ways out of the "fiscal cliff" situation.

If inflation remains low and U.S. negotiations are successful, gold could fall in value in the first quarter of 2013, as obstacles to economic growth will be removed and the need for gold as a reserve asset will be greatly reduced. Thus, it is possible to assume a new price "corridor", in which gold will be at the beginning of the year - $1650 to $1550 per troy ounce.

Amid these assumptions, gold with immediate delivery on the exchange lost 0.3% value, falling to $1652.

To sum up, in December 2012, the global economic situation in the world, associated with the growing tension of the threat of the "fiscal cliff" in the U.S., had the greatest impact on gold. There remains a high degree of probability that until the situation is resolved the position of gold as an investment instrument will gradually improveespecially if the U.S. political forces fail to reach an agreement and the economy falls into a technical default. The resolution of the situation, on the other hand, will reduce interest in goldwhich will entail a further decline in its value.

Fig. 1. Dynamics of the price of gold in December 2012.
Fig. 1. Dynamics of the price of gold in December 2012.

Silver: New Year holidays will stop the fall

The Silver Situation almost completely repeats the dynamics of gold. From the beginning of December silver was trading at $33.5 per troy ounce, and by December 25 it also reached its lowest level for the last 3-4 months and stopped at $29.95, thus losing almost 10% of its market value.

If we compare the situation on the silver market in November, the dynamics becomes even more traceable: On November 1, the price of silver was kept at $32.23 per troy ounce, and there was clearly a trend for future growth.

At the moment silver prices are influenced by the same factors as gold. The price of silver is also influenced by the value of gold itself. Uncertainty in the U.S. decision and the long New Year holidays for some time will suspend the active fall in valueBut these reasons will not hold him for long.

If the U.S. financial situation resolves itself better, silver will fall harder because its value as an investment metal is lower than that of gold, which could ultimately push the silver price down to $25 per troy ounce in the next quarter of 2013.

Fig. 2. Dynamics of silver price in December 2012.
Fig. 2. Dynamics of silver price in December 2012.

Platinum: downward trend continues

The platinum situation is more stablethan with silver and gold. Since early December the metal was trading at $1603 per troy ounce, and by 25 December it was $1536, i.e. reduced by 0.3-0.4%. It would be possible to call this fall significant, but for the fact that the price returned to the values of October ($1538) and November ($1548), which allows us to clearly outline the price corridor for this precious metal, which are between $1540 and $1625.

The fall in the price of platinum in the last 10 days of December was caused by several factors, including the release of the U.S. quarterly GDP reportThe US economy grew more significantly last quarter than analysts had anticipated. This led market participants to lower expectations for the continuation of monetary stimulus policies pursued by FED.

Anyway, at the moment there is a tendency for a certain decline in the value of platinumThe price of platinum, though to a lesser extent than that of gold and silver. Under equal objective conditions and a favorable resolution of the situation in the United States, platinum could fall to $1450 per troy ounce in the first quarter of 2013, because the investment attractiveness of this precious metal will significantly decreaseand platinum does not have the potential of gold.

There is, however, a possibility that in case the U.S. budget situation is unsuccessful, platinum will reach the price of gold again, i.e. start trading at $1750-$1850 per troy ounce.

Fig. 3. Dynamics of platinum prices in December 2012.
Fig. 3. Dynamics of platinum prices in December 2012.

Palladium: an island of stability among investment metals

Palladium - singular conditionally "investment" metal (conditionally, because it is used for investment purposes to a lesser extent than other precious metals), the value of which the current situation in December had almost no effect: it traded at $684 per troy ounce on December 1, today (December 25) it is at $687.

After hitting a December 22nd low of $679, palladium rebounded to a monthly average of $690 per troy ounce.

Amazing The stability of this metal is due to the scope of its application - In fact, it is used rather infrequently as an investment instrument, although it is a monetary metal. Its value is determined to a greater extent by demand in industry and jewelry, and to a lesser extent by fluctuations in the dollar or economic crises.

Analyzing the current situation, we can say that in the first quarter of 2013, palladium will trade at around $700 per troy ounce. This is the most stable investment vehicle of all those previously considered.

Fig. 4. Palladium price dynamics in December 2012.
Fig. 4. Palladium price dynamics in December 2012.

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