Russian stock market: a time of magical rallies
The end of autumn and the beginning of winter is a magical time. Some are already hunting for a Christmas tree, some are bustling about looking for New Year's gifts, some are in the spirit of tangerines, and some are still chasing profits. After all, this is also a fabulous period in the stock market, with so many mysteries and legends associated with it: the Thanksgiving Day rally, the New Year rally, and the managers' race for premiums.
Russian stock market: a rally in Russian realities
We have already discussed many times that all these stock market signs and wisdoms should be tested in practice. At Russian stock market They came from foreign traditions, and in some places they have not yet taken root, and in other places they have been adjusted by Russian realities.
This year, rallies of all stripes could be hindered by interim closing of the registers of a number of Russian issuers. But this does not mean that information on them should be discounted and not taken into account in trading.
Let's do some research together on the next rally, the Thanksgiving rally? Does the saying "Buy on Thanksgiving, sell on Christmas!" hold true? Are Russian quotes actively growing following America from the fourth Thursday of November to December 25?
The power is in the genetic memory of the marketplace
So, let's begin by checking the proverb in the marketplace from which it came. The fact is that it often happens, in our Trader's The world is penetrated not by true wisdom, but by myths, the application of which in trading practice will be disastrous for the trading account.
I took data from 1995 for the Dow Jones index, since older data was already cited in various books analyzing the effect of the rally.
Hallelujah, at least we weren't fooled here! Rally, not rally, but positive from late November to late December is a more frequent trend. Only 5 times out of 19 times have we seen the Dow index fall slightly during the study period. This means that the adage is valid and it makes sense to check it out in Russia as well.
Russian stock marketnamely RTS Index, 6 times did not take part in the Thanksgiving rally. As you can see, negative values on the Dow index have not always caused our index to fall. We only saw unanimous declines in the markets in 1998, 2002, and 2008. I don't need to explain the reasons for this unanimity, do I?
Such a simple study not only proves that the period in question is favorable for medium-term investments, but also reminds us of its autonomy. That we do not always blindly follow external guides. Still, the market's genetic memory is power. And if you ignore the study of the past, it makes no sense to step into the future.