Ruble exchange rate: 60-63 per dollar and euro in November

The ruble has remained quite stable in recent months, after the country's trade balance was severely "skewed" by the collapse of imports. It should also be noted that the Central Bank of Russia introduced very timely restrictive measures, which also helped the Russian currency to stay afloat. However, now it can hardly be called freely convertible, which, of course, affects the exchange rate.

Now the ruble has retreated from the level of 62 per dollar on the background of the completion of the next tax period. However, this support is temporary and we should expect a return to the same levels per dollar in the coming days and weeks.

It should be also noted that the Fed officials have become more active lately, who continue to pursue a "hawkish" line, talking about further rate hikes, which leads to a strengthening of the dollar. However, in fact, the ruble ceased to "normally" react to market signals back in the summer, again because in fact the currency is not freely convertible, and the factors like the increase are still much less significant than the embargo on energy resources, military action and the global crisis.

Currency markets in general are more similar to stock markets or other risky instruments, because investors often overvalue or undervalue this or that event on an emotional level, and to obscure emotions from the current situation by manipulating the ACP is unlikely.

As for trade balance equalization, which is sometimes talked about, there is no reason to expect it yet. Parallel imports, judging by the latest data published a couple of months ago, cover only about 4% of imports in 2021, and have not reached the necessary volumes. Here we could talk in more detail if the Central Bank of Russia published statistics on imports and exports, but since the spring of this year these data became closed, and it is quite problematic to understand the real volumes.

In the near future, we should rather expect further strengthening of the dollar against the background of the aggressive Fed policy, weakening of the yen because of the soft policy of the Bank of Japan, weakening of the Chinese yuan against the background of lockdowns, decline in economic growth and the mortgage crisis, and in general "stagnation" of the euro, which is unlikely to break through upward levels in the near future .

Thus, at the end of October-November we can expect to be in the already familiar range of 60-63 for the dollar and euro. Borderline breakdowns are unlikely, and if they occur, they will be temporary in nature.

Andrey Maslov, analyst at Finam Group