News

Is it profitable to buy gold today?

Dynamics in October remains rather weak amid continuing tightening of the Fed policy and strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Since the March peak, gold quotations fell by almost 20%. This provides an opportunity for the formation of a medium-term position on gold, as the process of raising rates will end in the foreseeable future, which will support the quotations of the precious metal. The head of the FRS J. Powell at the September meeting confirmed the course of his agency to keep the tight monetary policy in the USA until the inflation rate in the country returns to normal (2%). Against this backdrop, government bond yields are rising and the U.S. dollar is strengthening - this traditionally causes weakness in the prices of precious metals. Gold is very...

Читать далее »

What currency pairs are profitable for an investor today?

Artem Tuzov, Executive Director of the Capital Market Department at IK "IVA Partners", answered Fortrader magazine's questions. In view of the sanctions risks for the non-cash dollar and euro, only the currency pair Yuan/RUB (CNY/RUB) traded on the Moscow Exchange becomes relevant for Russians. The other assets with USD and EUR are becoming futile. If you bet on a general weakening of the ruble against foreign currencies, it is better to use the yuan. The USD/RUB is now in a six-month corridor, and unlike other currency pairs, there is no significant strengthening. This is quite understandable: none of the exporters do not want to take unnecessary risks and everyone is trying to get rid of toxic currencies as quickly as possible. The Euro goes below the dollar.

Читать далее »

Ruble exchange rate: 60-63 per dollar and euro in November

The ruble has remained quite stable in recent months, after the country's trade balance was severely "skewed" by the collapse of imports. It should also be noted that the Central Bank of Russia introduced very timely restrictive measures, which also helped the Russian currency to stay afloat. However, now it can hardly be called freely convertible, which, of course, affects the exchange rate. Now the ruble has retreated from the level of 62 per dollar on the background of the completion of the next tax period. However, this support is temporary and we should expect the return to the same levels per the dollar in the next days and weeks. We should also note that the Fed officials have become more active lately, who continue to bend a "hawkish" line,...

Читать далее »

It's the right time to invest in Russian stocks

Less than 2.5 months remain until the end of 2022. Issuers' statements for the first 9 months of the year are starting to come out, giving traders a chance to forecast companies' dividends for the entire year. And there will be dividends. Political tensions and sanctions have failed to seriously disrupt the business of Russian corporations. And some issuers even accelerated their revenue growth this year. Traders will be wagering on such reports. Some will focus on dividend stocks, while others will focus on stocks of fast-growing issuers. Both promise to yield good returns in 2023. Another trading option that is occupying the minds of traders right now is betting on the depreciation of the ruble. On the one hand, below 50 rubles per...

Читать далее »

Ruble devaluation awaits

The Russian currency weakened against the dollar and the euro against the background of geopolitical factors to 64.90 and 64 rubles respectively. The foreign currency failed to consolidate higher, the situation for the sale of proceeds was used by exporters, which helped bring down the speculative mood on the market. It's worth noting that growth of ruble weakening bets was fueled by external factors of the commodity markets: the currency approached the resistance of 65 rubles, forming a corrective rebound down to the area of 59-60 rubles per dollar.

Читать далее »

Euro = dollar. What is the reason for parity?

EURUSD has reached parity for the first time in decades. This event was expected in the market more than once, but for various reasons, the euro was still stronger than the dollar. Now the balance has been reached. Why has it happened? Let's consider from the point of view of fundamental and technical analysis. For half a year the world lives in a new reality, the reality of a new energy crisis. No joke - the price of oil is still at historically high levels, oil and oil products inventories in the USA are steadily declining, and the price of gas at an accelerated rate moves back to the levels of July 2008. Generally speaking, many economists like to draw parallels and compare the current situation to the subprime crisis in...

Читать далее »

Investing in currencies today: do I have to?

The ruble is categorically refusing to fall, and most experts, quite reasonably in my opinion, see certain risks for the Russian economy in this. Let's first look at the general picture of what is happening and then try to understand what we can do with our money in this situation. On 16.09, the Russian Central Bank lowered its key rate to 7.5%. The decision was quite expected. Recall, according to the Central Bank's baseline scenario, it should remain in the 6.5 - 8.5% range in 2023. Thus, we are just now seeing the equilibrium value of the rate. As a consequence, if we should expect it to continue decreasing, it is unlikely that this reduction will be very strong. By the way, together...

Читать далее »

The oil market is on edge

Oil market is in the same tension as financial markets - rising dollar and threat of recession press on quotations, while problems with formation of a single price ceiling for Russian oil and willingness of OPEC+ to keep its revenues at the expense of supply regulation periodically start to support bullish sentiment. The coming weeks will be volatile, or rather, very sharp fluctuations, up to 30% or more, are likely in the coming quarters, caused by both the economy and the military-political risk. First, it remains to be seen whether developed countries will face or stagflation, and second, the risks of supply interruption or a large "war" premium are also very high, and could become even more...

Читать далее »

Overview of the ruble and commodities market on October 17

Читать далее »

Euro and dollar parity. Can the EUR be more expensive again?

 Oleg Maltsev is a political consultant, publicist, and director of a communications agency in Moscow.

Читать далее »

5 factors of ruble appreciation

After the Central Bank lowered the ruble, it has weakened a bit and is trading close to 60 per dollar. Overall, the situation has not changed much over the past month. The main factors affecting the Russian currency remain the same since June. An important factor of a fairly strong ruble position is an imbalance in the trade balance of the country, which occurred against the background of a sharp fall of imports in Russia on the one hand, and the preservation of most of the raw material exports on the other. However, the exchange rate is still not close to 50 rubles per dollar and against the background of the launch of parallel imports. Thus, back at the beginning of the month, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development M. Reshetnikov said...

Читать далее »

Gold market: will the price rise or fall?

Traditionally, the price of gold is strongly influenced by the dynamics of yield on U.S. government bonds and the movement of the dollar index. But this year the price of precious metal was also actively influenced by geopolitical risks. In the first half of March it reached an eight-month high around $2078 per ounce, as escalating tensions between Russia and the West prompted investors to avoid riskier assets and choose safer investments in precious metals. Gold and silver are thought to be good defensive assets at a time when global inflation is rising. Data for May showed that the U.S. consumer inflation rate (CPI) was 8.6% year-over-year, the highest levels in...

Читать далее »

Where to invest in 2022?

It is very likely that the situation in the world is developing according to the scenario of 2008. Back then, on the eve of the cyclical crisis, which was then called the "Great Recession" between November 2007 and July 2008, the first wave of the crisis stock market decline of 20-24% in the S&P 500 broad market index was held. This was followed in September 2008 by a second, much more powerful wave of sell-offs. It was accompanied by the mortgage crisis in the U.S., which was the perfect formal explanation for the drop by March 2009 of another 46%. That is a total of 57% of the U.S. market collapsed between November 2007 and March 2009. Which...

Читать далее »

Can the price of oil fall?

What needs to happen for it to drop? As with any asset, there must be an imbalance of supply and demand. That is, there are always only two options: a fall in demand or a rise in supply. However, is it possible in the current conditions? Alas, there is nothing to please the bears here. The OPEC Secretary General has announced that oil demand will exceed pre-coveted levels by the end of this year. The cartel expects the average demand for the current year to be 100.3 million barrels per day. The IEA is less optimistic and expects oil demand to be 99.4 million bpd this year, rising to 101.6 million bpd in 2023. Despite...

Читать далее »

The ruble exchange rate and the price of oil begin to hinder the economy

The Russian currency in the second half of June continues to trade very strongly against the dollar and euro. The reasons for the ruble's strengthening have been known to all for a long time. There are three factors affecting the ruble exchange rate after the introduction of restrictions on capital withdrawal abroad: the Russian authorities are working to bring the ruble back to optimal levels. Some officials want to see the dollar around 70-75 rubles by the end of the year, because a strong ruble hurts the economy of Russia. However, the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina said that the Bank of Russia has no plans to interfere in the dynamics . This means that large amounts of foreign currency proceeds will continue to move the euro and dollar down. The demand for the falling in price currency...

Читать далее »

The ruble is going up. So far, nothing helps.

Курс рубля к доллару продолжает активно снижаться. За последнее время смог-таки сходить на 67.4, но на этом пока всё закончилось. А дальше, несмотря на то что: …рубль отказывается падать от слова совсем. И, в общем, даже и предъявить сильно нечего – спроса на иностранную валюту просто нет. Нет спроса – нет разговора. Судя по всему, девальвация будет возможна либо если ЦБ начнёт действовать ещё более агрессивно (а он, видимо, не начнёт), либо же если импорт хотя бы частично начнёт восстанавливаться (что в нынешних условиях тоже пока утопия). Нельзя исключать, конечно, что ужесточение ДКП в Штатах поддержит курс доллара. Инфляция продолжает…

Читать далее »

Buy... dollars/euros (underline)?

На рынке есть такой тип операций, которые называются арбитраж. Смысл арбитражных операций заключается в поиске «багов». Вот пара примеров: Обычно и коррелируют, т.е. рост цен на один драгоценный металл обычно сопровождается ростом цен на другой. Умные люди в умных книжках, к примеру, пишут, что есть даже определенное устойчивое соотношение цен. Когда-то это соотношение было 33:1. Сейчас времена несколько изменились и соотношение устойчиво колеблется вокруг 70:1. Арбитраж предполагает, что если, к примеру, соотношение сильно растет, т.е. становится, скажем 150:1, то возникает определенный баг, т.е. либо цена на золото слишком сильно оторвалась от цены на серебро, либо же, наоборот, цена на серебро…

Читать далее »

The ruble exchange rate: what next?

Сегодня, предлагаю взглянуть на курс рубля в ближайшей перспективе. После ударного и самого большего за всю историю укрепления рубля, у многих есть вопросы что же делать дальше? Будет ли по 60-50-40-30? И вообще, что происходит? Попробуем разобраться в том, что нас ожидает. Сначала давайте кратко проясним, что такое укрепление рубля случилось на фоне сокращения импорта. Произошёл серьёзный дисбаланс спроса валют. Также были введены меры по обязательной продаже валютной выручки на бирже для экспортеров. Поднятие ставки рефинансирования ЦБ также косвенно повлияло на укрепление курса. То есть, по нашему мнению, текущий курс рубля мягко говоря «искуссвенный», в том смысле, что он находися…

Читать далее »

How to get access to international financial markets bypassing sanctions with ECN

По статистике Центробанка РФ, на декабрь 2021 года брокерские счета были открыты у 17 миллионов россиян. Около 70% от общего количества инвесторов торгуют через . Основной объем операций на ней приходится на бумаги российских компаний. Оставшиеся 30% работают с площадкой «СПБ Биржа» — крупнейшим в России организатором торгов акциями компаний зарегистрированных вне юрисдикции РФ. Число жителей России занятых инвестиционной деятельностью через зарубежных брокеров сравнительно невелико. По данным ФНС оно находится в диапазоне 20 – 30 тысяч активных трейдеров. Крупные, институциональные игроки предпочитают сотрудничать с лидерами рынка финансовых операций, маркетмейкерами Morgan Stanley, Swissquote и т.д. И сами эти компании работают в…

Читать далее »

China's economy performs well even under quarantine

Несмотря на жесткие ограничения, введенные в ряде регионов КНР из-за коронавируса, страны за первые три месяца 2022-го вырос в годовом исчислении на 4,8%, следует из данных Национального статистического бюро Китая. Этот результат оказался лучше, чем в предыдущем квартале (4%), а также превзошел прогнозы опрошенных Reuters экономистов (они рассчитывали, что за январь—март 2022 года китайский ВВП увеличится на 4,4%). Также влияние на китайскую экономику оказал рост промышленного производства в стране: только в марте оно увеличилось на 5%, превысив прогноз роста в 4,5%. При этом розничные продажи в Китае в марте упали на 3,5% по сравнению с аналогичным периодом прошлого года (опрошенные Reuters…

Читать далее »