11 technologies of the future that could save the economic world

The new technologies of the 21st century will give the economy a noticeable boost, and the financial crisis, followed by sluggish economic growth, will seem like nothing more than an unfortunate misunderstanding.

Ever since the U.S. real estate bubble burst and the developed world entered a period of slow growth, the Internet has been flooded with pessimistic comments and blog posts, and even the major media outlets have succumbed to panic. In the end, the cumulative effect of the new technological discoveries will be stronger than our gloomy economic forecasts. In this article I will discuss the things that will make the 21st century truly unforgettable for humanity, as well as reveal some short-term factors that could keep the world economy from falling into the abyss.

Solar power will save costs and conflicts

Within the next decade, the cost of producing solar energy will fall to the level of coal power, so we will have another competitive source of clean energy. This will have a significant impact on the economy, political conflicts and the environment. Solar energy, including decentralized fuel cells, will reduce the need to transmit electricity; consequently, it will be cheaper for consumers and companies, resulting in higher costs and faster economic growth. Many political conflicts in the history of mankind have arisen precisely on the basis of resources, in particular energy sources such as crude oil. Solar energy, along with other sources of decentralized energy, is likely to help get rid of this cause for hostility. Thermonuclear power — крупный и пока малоизвестный источник энергии. Ученые верят, что смогут поставить производство термоядерной энергии на коммерческие рельсы, если им это действительно удастся, мир больше никогда не будет таким, как прежде. Только представьте, энергия перестанет быть препятствием, ограничением. Откроется масса новых возможностей для инноваций.

Biotechnology will change human life

In the 21st century, biotechnology will change people's lives forever. Our ever-expanding knowledge of neurobiology, microbiology, stem cells, and so on, will allow biotechnology to take the human life cycle to new, unimaginable levels. We may be able to get rid of many forms of cancer and other deadly diseases, including chronic ailments. Biotechnology will change the way we think about medicine. Breakthroughs in this field will compensate for demographic problems.

Synthetic biology will revolutionize agriculture

This scientific field will play an important role in the 21st century, helping mankind to feed its growing population. Synthetic biology will allow agriculture to increase production many times over by increasing yields. We will probably be able to synthesize phosphorus (phosphate) and potassium (potash), although Jeremy Grantham, founder of the investment company GMO, thinks this is impossible and prophesies disaster for mankind. But in 1930 we also thought we couldn't get to the moon, but 39 years later the States landed their astronaut there. Also, synthetic biology could create luminous microplants that could be used as light sources, instead of traditional ones; this would help reduce lighting costs.

Роботы — главный секрет роста производительности

Income growth depends on productivity growth, which, in turn, is one of the main pillars of economic growth. In the 21st century, robots with artificial intelligence (AI) will infiltrate all areas of our lives, changing them beyond recognition. Robots will clean our homes, build, produce goods without requiring wage increases, provide medical services, and perform military operations. This will help offset the problem of demographics, in particular the increasing proportion of the elderly in the general population. In addition, robots will help developed countries win the battle to keep manufacturing on their territory.

Money in all its forms is undergoing rapid change

Reading Aaron Brown's latest book, Red-Blooded Risk, one is immersed in the history of Wall Street and money itself. It tells the story of how money changes: it comes in physical forms (gold), paper, derivatives, and so on, with each form having its own purpose in the economy. After reading the book, and looking back at the predictions and comments on monetary policy after the Federal Reserve начал свои нетрадиционные операции, я пришел к выводу, что люди плохо понимают всю сложность денег и суть их взаимодействия с экономикой. Производные инструменты будут развиваться и проникать во все уголки Уолл-стрит и Мейн-стрит (если интересно, почитайте книгу Брауна, там полно аргументов), и рыночная экономика от этого только выиграет. В цифровой экономике главная функция денег уже не сохранение ценности — главный довод в пользу использования валют, обеспеченных золотом, а облегчение транзакций и гибкость — главная причина тотальной экспансии бумажных денег. В один прекрасный день наличность и вовсе исчезнет из экономики.

World trade has never been so vast, and it is not the limit

The volume of global trade increases every year; never before in the history of mankind have people traded so actively with each other. The revolution in the transport sector, which began along with the industrial revolution, combined with the development of information technology, has created a transparent global economy. That is why large countries now go to war much less frequently; the more active trade is, the more expensive the war will cost a country. World trade is likely to continue to grow in the 21st century as new and emerging regions (South America and Africa) are included.

Wages will not be displaced

There is a graph on the Internet that shows wages in the U.S. as a percentage of GDPBut it leads to erroneous conclusions. Given a number of government-regulated benefits (health care, benefits, and so on), we cannot, on the basis of statistics, say that wages are being displaced. We should not think that in the future we will have only capital and no wages. My analysis provides additional arguments and reasons for the current situation, in addition to explaining why things will change in the future.

The Euro will live a long time

The eurozone economy has so far managed to survive despite the crisis, and many reforms have already been initiated that will strengthen both the currency and the monetary union. The secondary derivatives of many economic indicators have already changed, which is often the first sign of improvement. Exports in Italy and Spain have reached historic highs, and labor costs per unit of output are declining steadily in all peripheral countries, contributing to their competitiveness. People have a short memory, so many Europeans have simply forgotten about currency volatility the pre-European era, and the endless devaluations that prevented real reforms. If anything, the euro is forcing southern countries to make reforms that will ultimately benefit them. The euro will live on, and ten years from now many more countries will be using it.

Low interest rates don't kill banks

In these unprecedented times, low interest rates are often called the weapon of mass destruction of banks. But the banks are doing quite well. Net interest margins for European banks like Deutsche Bank and Danske Bank were 0.84% and 1.14 in 2012, respectively, the same as 10-12 years ago. The fact is that interest margins bottomed out in 2007, but this was due to fierce competition between banks for corporate clients in an era of credit growth. If a zero (or even negative rate), or low interest rate is so disastrous for banks, why in Denmark (the country where the Central Bank set a negative deposit rate), are they still alive?

Do not underestimate the power of capitalization

Many people are pessimistic about the economy and the future because they underestimate the power of capitalization. If in 1982, when the U.S. economy entered its fourth recession за последние 12 лет, вы сказали, что через 30 лет каждый будет владеть всей информацией мира — нужно лишь нажать кнопку — вас бы подняли на смех. Но теперь так оно и есть, благодаря Интернету, Google, смартфонам и т.д. Капитализация похожа на снежный ком. Поначалу его почти не видно, но когда его скорость достигает максимума, сила его воздействия возрастает многократно. Все научные открытия будущего будут менять нашу экономику и повышать качество жизни до немыслимых сегодня уровней, а, благодаря информационным технологиям, масштабы трансформаций действительно безграничны. Станет ли сингулярность реальностью? Жизнь покажет.

Engineers don't care about the market, and that's a good thing

Но если в экономике творятся все эти «ужасы», а политики такие узколобые тугодумы, то почему мы не обречены? Потому что инженерам нет дела ни до финансовых рынков, ни до центральных банков. Люди, работающие в финансовой сфере, склонны экстраполировать все плохие новости, полученные тут, в самом сердце финансовых рынков, на остальные сферы жизни; нам кажется, что другие люди видят то же, что и мы. Но на самом деле, простых инженеров не слишком волнуют проблемы мировой экономики. Они думают о том, как проснутся завтра утром и придумают что-нибудь новенькое, например, оптимизируют расходы топлива на реактивных самолетах, создадут автомобили без водителей, чтобы уменьшить загруженность на дорогах. К счастью для нас всех, их усилия спасут этот мир.

The opinion was voiced by Peter Garnry, head of the stock market department of the brokerage company Saxo Bank