AUD/USD: the Australian dollar returned to decline on April 28, 2023
Thus, the producer price index for the first quarter of 2023 in annual terms slowed from 5.8% to 5.2%, while analysts expected the same dynamics to remain unchanged, and in quarterly terms the index accelerated from 0.7% to 1.0%, which was lower than the forecasted 1.5%. Earlier in Australia, data on consumer inflation were published: in the first quarter, the consumer price index adjusted from 7.8% to 7.0% in annualized terms, slightly short of the 6.9% expected by experts, and in quarterly terms - from 1.9% to 1.4% with a forecast of 1.3%.
Further reduction of inflationary pressure in the country is likely to affect the subsequent decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the interest rate. In April, the regulator left the rate at 3.60% and analysts expect the same outcome of the RBA meeting scheduled for May 2. This, in turn, may put significant pressure on the AUD/USD pair, as the U.S. Fed is still set to further increase the cost of borrowing.
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart of AUD/USD demonstrate flat dynamics: the price range is slightly expanding from below, freeing the "bears" the way to new local lows. MACD is declining, keeping a relatively strong sell signal (the histogram is located below the signal line). Stochastic, having reached its minimum values, is trying to turn to the upside, signaling the risks of oversold Australian dollar in the ultra-short-term perspective.