Will the dollar exchange rate be 70 rubles again?

While the major currencies are growing against the dollar, the ruble is in no hurry to take advantage of its weakness, staying in the range of 72.60-75 rubles/dollar. Dynamics of oil prices and lack of demand for risky assets do not give reasons for growth ruble exchange rateand the events in Belarus aggravate the situation of ruble assets - the value of OFZs fell to a record for 4 months, which forced the Ministry of Finance to cancel auctions for their placement.

How pessimistic ruble exchange rate forecasts? Will the range be maintained until the end of the month or the ruble may strengthen? Sergey Drozdov, analyst at FINAM Group of Companies, answered the question posed by Fortrader magazine.

- At the moment, the Russian currency is mostly focused on domestic stories, one of which is the auctions of the Ministry of Finance, where due to the record-breaking low key interest rate there is virtually no demand for the OFZs offered by the agency.

During the last two weeks, the ruble has not reacted to the weakening of the dollar on the Forex market, and its rate continues to be in the corridor of 72.70-75 per one unit of the American currency. To all appearances, this range will remain relevant for some time. However, with the deterioration of sentiment in the global financial markets, where the first signs of correction have appeared, we cannot exclude attempts of the dollar/ruble pair to go beyond the upper boundary of the range.

If we talk about the long-term perspective, at this stage, despite the still difficult situation with the Covid-19 pandemic and the risks of correction in stock markets, ahead of the U.S. elections, supported by money from the world's central banks, investors continue to bet on the recovery of the global economy.

In addition, oil consumption is growing in most countries and, in particular, in China, one of the largest oil importers, which, if this trend continues until the end of this year, may raise the price of benchmark Brent to the levels of $50-55 per barrel, respectively, and the ruble exchange rate in the realization of this scenario will at least shift to the range of 68-70 against the dollar.