ForTrader.org #97. September at . Waiting for change

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Contrary to our expectations, August was not without shocks. The last days of the month were shaking in all directions - from ruble to yuan, from oil to gold. September does not promise us any respite, as the agenda includes possible changes related to the monetary policy actions of the world's major powers, primarily the Federal Reserve System.

The markets are waiting for change, and seem sure to take advantage of all the opportunities that September will bring. In the 97th issue of our magazine, look for great entry points to act in tandem with the changes.

In the second half of the month, we will focus on the training process. We will talk about our main topics covered in previous issues and reveal interesting new ideas for modernizing the trading process.

Have a great change in September 2015!
Regards, Julia Apel

FORTrader.org FOREX JOURNAL ANNOUNCER 97

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ROOM CONTENT

1. OIL AND RUBLE EXCHANGE RATE IN SEPTEMBER 2015: IN STABLE RISK ZONE

On the ruble exchange rate and oil price in September with ForTrader.org analyst Roman Kravchenko.

According to financial analysts, Russia's budget deficit at the end of 2015 will amount to 3.3% of GDP. If the fall in oil prices resumes, and the probability of such a scenario is extremely high, the ruble exchange rate will see another cycle of weakening to combat the budget deficit.

If the Fed does decide to raise interest rates at the September meetingThis will multiply the outflow of funds from emerging markets, which will lead to a decline in the currencies of emerging markets, including the Russian ruble. At the same time, the price of oil will also fall.

On possible trends of the US dollar exchange rate in September. Exchange analyst column with Alexander Kuptsikevich, FxPro.

A rate hike would be a big surprise for stock and currency markets, sending the USD to the upside and causing a sell-off in equities. However, stocks in such conditions will recover rather quickly on the belief that the Fed is acting with enough caution and has carefully weighed its moves, convinced of the need for a rate hike. The dollar, on the other hand, will be in high demand at least until the end of the year.

In the second case - if the rate stays on hold and signals further caution - the dollar is capable of losing around 5% in September, returning to 1.18 levels on EUR/USD...

Market wave forecast for August with signals for the euro, pound and yen from Admiral Markets.

Nevertheless, speaking about the wave analysis, it should be noted that in the long term the British currency still looks good from the point of view of opening long positions. The expediency of purchases is conditioned by the global cycle being at the end of the second impulse wave and the probable beginning of the third one, the goals of which in the long term may extend up to 2.0 and higher for the GBP/USD currency pair.

Speaking about the current outlook, it should be noted that short-term trends are uncertain and do not give clear buy or sell signals....

On the oil price with forecasts for September, Anna Bodrova, analyst at Alpari.

The outlook for Brent in September looks mixed. Iran and the US Fed meeting are at the forefront. Until September 16-17, when the Fed meeting will be held, oil has chances to stay in the range of $ 48-53 per barrel.

The technical corridor for oil prices in September is broader, driven by intraday volatility and is $42.20-54.32.

Forecast and recommendations on trading in September from Dmitry Lukashov, analyst of IFC Markets.

In any case, trend movements on can be spoiled by unnecessary volatility. Therefore, I believe that it is better to refrain from active trading in currencies for the time being and consider commodity futures market.

Quotes of these assets collapsed heavily and are now fluctuating at the level of the crisis year 2008. Meanwhile, the accumulated inflation in the U.S. for 8 years amounted to almost 10%. In my opinion, it makes sense to consider the idea of buying copper futures, oilwheat, corn, soybeans, coffee, cotton.

The most important events that will affect currency movements from Vladimir Konta, analyst of ForTrader.org magazine.

First, CPI is one of the US Federal Reserve's mandates. Simply put, the Fed is obliged to maintain price stability in the country, which is interpreted as achieving the inflation target in 2%. Thus, the acceleration of price growth, the rate of which is still around zero, is favorable for the strengthening of the US dollar, as it helps to start the process of monetary policy normalization.

Second, the CPI report will be available exactly one day before the Fed makes its decision on the key interest rate, which is the most important event, if not of the year, then at least of September. Again, accelerating inflation may cause investors to reassess their expectations of a key Fed rate hike, which, however, is also true in the opposite direction.

USD/JPY forecast for September from the analytical department of Fort Financial Services.

From a technical point of view, in the horizon of several weeks we consider that the pair USD/JPY will continue to trade inside the corridor 118-121.75, and we can hardly say that the correction is over. We expect a new downside impulse, which will probably test the 118.75 level, and if it is passed, a further decline to 115.55 is possible.

Financial literacy from Sergey Kochergin, EXNESS analyst.

Since 1993, the world's major central banks have used to varying degrees the Taylor rule, which is a reaction function whereby the interest rate is adjusted by the national central bank in response to changes in inflation.

When calculating the GDP gap, we used similar industrial production data instead of GDP data. This was done in order to avoid a lag in the US Federal Reserve's decision on the key interest rate (since GDP estimates are published quarterly, while estimates of industrial production levels and the key interest rate are published once a month in the US).

Market forecast for September from Evgeny Filippov, analyst of STForex.

On the daily timeframe the pair Euro/dollar is trading with a bounce upwards from the level of 1.1080, which is almost the middle of the sideways range of 1.08-1.14. A move to the resistance zone of 1.14 is both technically and fundamentally possible, but the Euro has no chances to break this level and consolidate above it. This in turn indicates the potential weakness of the euro, which will show itself to a greater extent as soon as the Fed gives a signal to raise the cost of federal funds.

Thus, we get the same sideways picture with a potential downside exit, which will be signaled by a breakdown of the horizontal support level at 1.08, which in turn opens the way to the lows of the current year around 1.05. Obviously, within the current month EUR/USD will be locked between 1.1080 and 1.14, the upcoming Fed meeting will increase volatility in the pair, but these levels are unlikely to be broken.

Практика торговли на фондовом рынке России с Юлией Афанасьевой и компанией «Финам».

To somehow draw a ray of light in the clouds and support the general mood of expectation of a miracle, I will not list the list of strong securities once again or tell the theory of OFZ. Let's look for future possible favorites.

Last year we cleverly found VTB, the year before that Alrosa. At the end of this year and with a view to 2016, in order to spice up my medium-term portfolio, I am looking for Aeroflot securities from 26 or above 44 rubles, Sistema above 22 rubles, Rostelecom on the breakdown of 90 rubles. All these stocks have broken their last downtrends, but they can't draw new uptrends yet.

What to read in September? Exchange literature in the magazine.

About how much the financial markets have changed in the direction of acceleration and dynamics with the advent of high-frequency trading. No one has canceled traditional investing, but how fair is the competition in the usual sense of the word? One day, high-frequency trading will be eclipsed by an even more sophisticated mechanism, but its name is written in capital letters in recent financial history.

This book is for anyone involved in stock trading and interested in its secret mechanisms.

Interesting Japanese candlestick technical analysis patterns on .

The emergence of new patterns is easy to explain. The market is about people's actions. We have changing activity, life circumstances, external environment. We are not the same as we were 20 years ago, and the market has changed. In addition, we now have a much greater ability to research the history of quotes, which means we can see a little more of our predecessors.

About 7 years ago, with the joint efforts of the editorial team, we wrote a trading advisor based on a new pattern that we discovered by accident while researching the phenomenon of high earnings at night. Its efficiency allowed the magazine and our projects to appear. So we know exactly what we are talking about 🙂 🙂

About trading binary options with the experts of ForTrader.org magazine.

Of course, there are situations where brokers are somewhat flirtatious in their understatement. For example, most recently on the our forum we came across the discussion of the problem of one of the client, who gave permission to the analyst of the binary options broker to open a "very profitable deal" after a series of successful winnings. Well, what seems to be the problem, the company has already earned the client 10,000$ and promised to double the deposit with just one trade, but she forgot to specify that the expiration date of the contract will be in a year...

We do not exclude that the analyst warned the client about it in passing, that everything was done honestly, but it did not seem that she understood the situation to the end, since the previous contracts were only for a few days. It all became clear when she needed the money urgently, but it was too late.

«Будь трейдером!» о начале карьеры трейдера с Романом Кравченко.

The first thing to think hard about is.....

- It is not a casino, where you can get money by guessing the exchange rate, and not a bank, where interest accumulates over time without our participation. Trading on the currency market, like any other profession, requires certain knowledge, skills and moral qualities. Trading on Forex, you need to constantly learn, improve your knowledge and, the most difficult thing - to be able to make decisions after analyzing your successes and mistakes.

Read the previous paragraph again, imagine yourself in the role of a trader and think whether you really want to devote your time to trading on ? If some point causes difficulties or denial in your mind, then trading may become for you an unpleasant profession that will bring neither joy nor money. But if you agree that you will have to study for some time, analyze the market situation on a daily basis, strictly approach your actions, and are ready to receive not only profits but also losses, then welcome to the currency market!

Секреты торговли на фондовом рынке России с Юлией Афанасьевой, преподавателем компании «Финам».

Thirdly, another new old trick. A universal desire to bring an already standing "stop-loss" to the side of increasing loss.

We bought shares at 100 rubles, we want to sell at 115 rubles, the risk was set at 5 rubles. "Stop-loss" amicably put under the mark of 95 rubles and also amicably, when the price tag flashed at 95, moved the stop for 94, 93, 92....

If your hand reaches out to move the "stop" in the direction of increasing losses - get out of the market, you are not the master of your word! Only an irresponsible person, who can cross out a huge path of preparation in 1 minute, does not appreciate the decisions made with a cold head, acts this way.

On the workings of modern technologies with Evgeny Sorokin, CEO of Quotix.

Order routing occurs according to a set of rules. The aggregator selects the best liquidity provider or their combination for each incoming order. An incoming order can be an overlap of an individual trader or, for example, the combined overlap volume of a group of client orders.

Liquidity providers are selected based on the prices they offer, available volume, external restrictions of the providers on the size of each trade, etc. The main influence, of course, is price. The aggregator is able to select the best combinations of liquidity providers, send out trade orders to them, handle rejections and "re-route" based on changed conditions.

September trading strategy.

The FVT Trading System trend trading strategy is a classic combination of trend indicators with the by oscillators with additional filtering of trading signals.

Currency pairs: any.
Timeframe: M15 and higher.
Bidding time: any.
Risk Management: After calculating the stop-loss, choose such a volume of the lot that the risk was no more than 2-5% of the deposit per trade.

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