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Stock market: which stocks to buy today and which not to buy

Прошло 12 месяцев моменты начала СВО, за это время произошло множество политических и экономических событий: новые санкции достигли невероятных размеров, подобных которым не было ни в одной стране мира. Настала пора посмотреть, как последние 12 месяцев пережили акции российских эмитентов. Рынок очень тонкий (объёмы торгов существенно упали), поэтому мы решили рассмотреть только акции, входящие в , чтобы понять, как на них отразились санкции, в каких из них продолжают сохраняться наибольшие риски, а где возможно уже есть сигналы для долгосрочных и среднесрочных покупок. Мы не стали брать акции «второго эшелона», так как из-за низкого объема торгов здесь не понять, где реальное…

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USD/RUB: more likely 75 rubles per dollar than revaluation

В мы рассматривали факторы резкого ослабления рубля, выделив 3 ключевых причины: «закачка» ликвидности (российское QE), ухудшение показателей счета текущих операций, эмоционально-спекулятивный фактор. Среди этих факторов экономисты особенно выделяют показатели платежного баланса, которые являются определяющими в нынешнем движении курса. Это неудивительно, учитывая то, что Минфин РФ в январе возродил бюджетное правило, согласно которому годовое превышение нефтегазовых доходов бюджета отметки 8 триллионов руб. (читай – улучшение счета текущих операций) будет означать направление «сверхдоходов» на покупку иностранной валюты (давление на рубль). В противном же случае (ухудшение показателей платежного баланса), дефицит будет закрываться путем продажи иностранной валюты из Фонда национального благосостояния (размер почти 310…

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$90/bbl Brent oil. Oil demand outlook looks favorable

The main growth driver since the second week of January is the removal of covid restrictions in China, which could lead to a recovery in demand. It is believed that the demand for fuel in the Celestial Empire will actively increase starting from February, supporting the price recovery that started in the middle of January. At the end of January, fresh statistics on Chinese business activity indices came out. It showed that the lifting of restrictions against the coronavirus significantly boosted PMIs at the end of last year. Thus, the composite index was 52.9 p. compared to 42.6 p. in December. In other words, such a dramatic improvement in China's business environment took place in just one month. That's a positive factor for oil prices. The topic of China has become...

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In 2023, let's invest in indices

The first month of 2023 is over, but many stockbrokers are just now getting into active trading, so it's not too late to talk about the main trends on which you can make money in 2023. We could slip into the banal reasoning that the most relevant stocks now are MIC or pharma. But I think that at the current moment, index investing and possibly index commodity investing become more relevant than ever. Predicting the movement of individual industries over the medium to long term is hard, and markets are always growing. Every Russian investor has the opportunity to invest in indices through futures and, in commodities, also through swap contracts.

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Bitcoin in 2023. What is the prediction

Let's start the bitcoin forecast for 2023, probably, with a pretty clear and popular picture walking around the net: In fact, it is not quite correct in terms of risk assessment, of course. For example, returns on deposits are not zero, and so are risks; returns on currencies depend on the currency of investment, and it is not quite correct to compare the risk/return criterion with cryptocurrency. At the same time, the general idea of this chart quite correctly reflects the very philosophy of investing. In a RISK-ON situation, an allocation from low-risk assets to high-risk assets begins, leading to higher returns at the top of the curve and lower returns at the bottom. In other words, the slope of the curve is normal....

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The price of oil will continue to fall in 2023

By mid-December relative to the summer highs ($125/bbl) have already lost 35% due to the fact that Russia continues to supply oil to markets in the same volumes, while the PRC economy has slowed down due to quarantines and restrictions. These factors will be relevant in the first quarter of 2023. However, it is worth waiting: All these factors should stabilize and support oil prices. "Price ceiling" from G7 and embargo from EU in December almost did not lead to restriction of Russian oil supply. The price discount for Urals export crude relative to Brent in mid-December was about $30/bbl. However, when the new supply chains are formed, it is expected that the discount will go down to $10-15/bbl. Oil price forecast for Q1: will remain...

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75-80 rubles per dollar. There has never been anything like this before, and here we are again...

Over the last month (from 28.11 to 23.12), the ruble grew by 22.6%. Moreover, more than half of this movement was during the penultimate week of December - the growth amounted to 14%. Many economists predicted that by the end of the current year the dollar would be near the level of 70 rubles. Forecasts differed solely on the range. I've mostly seen two versions of those forecasts: a cautious one, at 65-70 rubles/USD, and a more aggressive one, at 70-75 rubles by the end of the year. Despite the availability of such an opinion in the public domain, such a strong national currency was a revelation for many. At the same time, those who follow the exchange rate were frightened most of all by the drop in the exchange rate itself, and its...

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65 rubles per dollar - the likely rate at the beginning of 2023

The ruble may move in a smoothly ascending corridor until the end of the year, gradually weakening against major currencies. However, the most important factors to determine the exchange rate remain the military-political and macroeconomic ones. If new social shocks occur, we could see sharp moves towards weakening, because speculative demand for alternative currencies would increase in the moment and become the dominant factor compared to the dynamics of currency inflows from foreign trade operations. If such shocks do not happen, the gradual reduction in the value of the trade surplus (due to the probable reduction of export revenues and growth of imports as new supply channels are formed and expanded) will lead to a gradual movement of the exchange rate in...

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If not bitcoin, then who? What coin should a cryptoinvestor buy?

The cryptocurrency market is losing value significantly across the board. The major coins and the less sought-after ones have fallen to critically low levels over the past year. Does the market have the prerequisites for growth? In what coins can be invested today? Leonid Delitsyn, analyst at Finam Financial Group, answered ForTrader.org's question. The current decline in the cryptocurrency market has several reasons related to each other. As a rule, when the market falls, the most popular instruments hold longer. Long-term investors with the strongest nerves have already invested in them and will lose a little anyway, because they have invested a small share of funds. Therefore, you should not expect to find liquid cryptocurrencies that will hold up when...

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The dollar will cost 68.4 rubles in 2023, while in 2024 it will grow to 75.3 rubles.

In early December, it began to actively weaken. Quite quiet November seems to have given way to a volatile December. As we see on the daily chart, USD/RUB is moving up from the nearest support at RUR 60.0, while a strong resistance is at RUR 65.0. At the end of last week, the dollar/ruble exchange rate rose by 2.5%, even though the dollar index against the key world currencies fell by 1.2% over the week. By comparison, it rose by 3.3% over the week, while at 1.25%. The USD/RUB pair closed Friday at RUB 62.0. - This is the highest level since early November. If at the end of November, the ruble exchange rate...

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The price of oil continues to fall. Let's look at the reasons

At the end of last week it decreased by 4.23% against decrease by 8.6% a week before. As we can see, the rate of price decrease is gradually slowing down. In other words, in the nearest week oil is likely to look for points of support to show the rise in another week. On the daily chart we can see that the Brent quotes are again approaching the September lows around $82.5/bbl. At this boundary, we can expect the price decline to stop, similar to the way the rise stopped in November at the strong resistance around $98/bbl. On Monday afternoon, Brent prices collapsed 6% to $82.5/bbl on a report by The Wall Street Journal that Saudi Arabia and other producers...

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No one really knows how cryptocurrency exchanges work... or the collapse of FTX

The consequences of the collapse of the FTX exchange are not over yet. Its bankruptcy proceedings are underway, with intensive coverage in the press. Lawyers of all parties involved in the process keep delighting the media with unexpected information. For example, the lawyers representing FTX told Judge Dorsey that due to technical problems the liquidation commission is now unable to find out what assets belong to FTX. All information flowed exclusively to the company's founder, Sam Bankman-Friede, and no one else owned it. Judge Dorsey has promised not to release the names of the company's affected customers until it is absolutely necessary. And there are about a million of them. Although their names and addresses are still secret, their geography has already been published...

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Metals are not of short-term interest to speculators

Now all metals, both precious and industrial, are in a short-term correction. The market expects further increase of Fed and ECB rates and, as a consequence, strengthening of Dollar and Euro to foreign currencies. And because metals are mostly mined in developing countries, their cost in local currencies is falling. So on the whole metals are not of short-term interest to speculators. It remains relevant for investors to buy precious metals as a natural hedge against a global recession and crisis. Usually when stock markets fall, silver and other precious metals rise.

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EUR/USD: forecast for the coming week

is below the resistance level of 1.035, trading at $1.028 per Euro. Stochastic lines are still on the border of the overbought zone, indicating that further growth for the instrument in the short term is limited. At the end of last week currency pair EUR/USD fell by 0.27%, being at the levels of 1.0324. The euro has been trading slightly above $1.03 in recent days, remaining near the highs since July 4, as the European Central Bank, despite fears of slowing economic growth, continues hawkish rhetoric that means a likely tightening of monetary policy to moderate high inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the central bank will continue to raise the rate as inflation...

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Not giving up on Sber and OFZs

Market condition is uncertain: small positive in the form of slight easing of sanctions policy (not rhetoric!) against some types of Russian assets and raw materials, as well as support from external markets, which are recovering on good data on GDP, unemployment and inflation in USA, plus on improvement of situation with covid restrictions in China, allowed to rise to important technical resistance levels on many securities. Further everything will be determined by whether there will be some new positive on the military-political background or, on the contrary, aggravation will take place. So the market is waiting. In such a situation buying right now, especially speculative, may not be very justified. However, it is likely that to win back a possible...

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The ruble exchange rate is preparing to move into a new price range

The Russian ruble continues to trade near the level of 60 rubles per dollar and euro for the 5th week in a row. Market stability is largely provided by the high (Brent barrel is held near the 95$ level) and expectations of news from the international political arena. On November 15 and 16, Indonesia will host the summit of the Big 20 (G20). Leaders of the key countries will discuss global economic issues caused by the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia as well as its settlement. Domestic economic factors are not yet optimistic. Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Bank of Russia, speaking in the State Duma, noted that it would take years for the economy to adapt to the sanctions. Growing inflation risks limit the potential for lowering the key rate (the current level...

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Forecast: the ruble exchange rate will remain in the range of 70-75 per dollar by the end of the year

In recent months, the Russian currency has continued to be in a range of 60-63 per dollar. This is largely due to the trade balance imbalance, as investors and large companies left Russia after the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, thereby collapsing imports. At the same time, exports from Russia fell not so dramatically, which resulted in a rather serious "tilt" in the trade balance towards exports to the uncontrolled strengthening of the ruble in summer and a relatively stable exchange rate in autumn. However, a too strong ruble causes quite a serious damage to the Russian budget, as oil and gas continue to be in fact traded in foreign currency despite the statements of Russian officials...

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Gold price may rise to 1800$ per ounce

The reaction of the gold and silver markets to another Fed hike to 4%, the highest since 2007, is very interesting. The long-term trend for a decrease in the price of gold in dollars, due to the fact that the U.S. currency is strengthening, is in danger of being broken. It is connected with the fact that the long period of the Fed's high rate may, instead of curbing inflation, which is now equal to 8.3%, lead to losses of U.S. corporations due to high debt burden and, consequently, cause a recession. Cautious investors like to wait out crises in a protective asset such as gold. So, if the metal's rising trend is not broken, its price could go to $1,800 per...

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Oil price to approach 100$ per barrel by the end of 2022

At the end of October oil tried to return to the resistance level of $100 per barrel, keeping noticeably above the support at $90. This was happening against the background of growing concerns about the deficit at the oil market. This was the market participants' reaction to the statements of the Minister of Energy of Saudi Arabia, Prince Abdul-Aziz bin Salman, that the lack of strategic reserves and spare production capacity may become painful for the market in the coming months. Oil prices were also additionally supported by some weakening of the US dollar, as investors and analysts expect a slowdown in the US economy, which has never gone into recession and many macroeconomic indicators remain acceptable. Other ...

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Stock markets: indices are losing ground in anticipation of the Fed rate hike

U.S. stock indices declined on Monday: . JPMorgan has already provided its forecast on this occasion. According to the bank strategists, the most aggressive over the past decades cycle of rising interest rates is nearing its end, and the monetary policy of the states will start to soften in the near future. Thus, according to the estimates of JPMorgan, rates in America will rise by 50 basis points in December (that is, below expectations), and by 25 basis points in the first quarter of next year. If the December forecast of experts will come true, and the Fed will report a willingness to tolerate higher inflation, such easing could lead to the fact that the S & P 500 could jump by at least 10% in one day, according to analysts....

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